The Renaissance Dam crisis returns to the forefront after Ethiopian statements about controlling the Nile waters

The Renaissance Dam crisis returned to the forefront with statements by the Ethiopian Minister of Water and Energy in which he spoke about his country’s intention to build additional dams to enhance the benefit from the Nile waters and increase electricity production, indicating that the flow of water to the downstream countries will be under his country’s control, at a time when Egypt and Sudan are still in dispute with Ethiopia regarding the rules for managing and operating the Renaissance Dam, amid repeated calls to reach an agreement that takes into account the interests of the Nile Basin countries. Construction work on the Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile began in April 2011, before it was officially opened on September 9, 2025, after more than 14 years of construction work.

During this period, the three countries engaged in marathon negotiations without reaching an agreement on operating the dam. The Ethiopian Minister of Water and Energy, Habtamu Etefa, said that his country has strengthened its food security and expanded electricity production, in addition to achieving regional integration through cross-border electrical interconnection, after the construction of the Renaissance Dam, adding that Ethiopia must build additional dams to enhance the equitable use of the Nile waters and strengthen its leadership role, and that the flow of water to downstream countries will be under his country’s control.

These statements sparked an Egyptian response, as an official Egyptian source said that the minister’s talk about building additional dams and controlling water flows to Egypt and Sudan represents a continuation of the unilateral Ethiopian approach, and contradicts the rules of international law regulating shared rivers. The source stressed that the Nile River does not belong to a specific country, and that managing its flows should take into account the rights of all countries that depend on it, stressing that Egypt will not allow the imposition of a fait accompli that threatens its water rights and interests.

From a technical standpoint, Abbas Sharaqi, professor of geology and water resources at Cairo University, believes that talking about Ethiopia’s control over the Nile waters needs to be placed within the framework of the capabilities of the Renaissance Dam and the nature of the Blue Nile’s flows. He explained that the dam has a specific storage capacity, and therefore its ability to reserve water is linked to the size of the reservoir and the flows coming into it. As the reservoir reaches its maximum capacity and the water continues to flow, there becomes a need to pass the excess water into the course of the Blue Nile. He pointed to what happened in September of last year, when rain continued with the rise in water levels in the dam reservoir, which led to the opening of the spillway gates to pass the excess water, pointing out that the water that passes through these gates does not pass through the turbines and is not used to generate electricity.

Sharaqi added, in exclusive statements to Ofek News in Arabic, that the water that passes through the turbines of the Renaissance Dam to generate electricity then continues in the course of the Blue Nile, reaching Sudan and then Egypt. Therefore, operating the dam does not mean stopping the flow of water to the downstream countries, explaining that Ethiopia can reserve and regulate quantities of water through the dam, but that does not mean it is able to stop the flow of Nile water permanently, because the continued rains and the filling of the reservoir force the passage of excess water, and the operation of the dam requires continued drainage. Water. Regarding the talk about building three new dams, Sharaqi said that implementing these projects at the same time will be a major challenge from both the technical and economic standpoints, and that the existing dams are not small projects, and that the storage capacity of each of them ranges, according to the circulating data, between 40 and 50 billion cubic metres, while the cost of constructing each dam may reach about 3 billion dollars.

He pointed out that the experience of the Renaissance Dam reflects the amount of time and resources required to implement a project of this size, as its foundation stone was laid in April 2011, while it was opened in September 2025, adding that constructing three large dams means creating three storage lakes, which makes studying the impact of these projects on the flows of the Blue Nile to Sudan and Egypt essential before implementing them. Sharaqi said that Egypt does not reject Ethiopia's right to development or to establish electricity generation projects, but rather stipulates that these projects do not harm its water rights or the rights of Sudan. Likewise, any new project within the Nile Basin needs technical studies, exchange of information, and consultation between the countries concerned to determine its impact on flows.

Sharaqi believes that any transition to new water projects makes reaching clear rules for exchanging data, studies, and evaluating impacts more important. Likewise, agreeing on the rules for operating the Renaissance Dam could represent a basis for dealing with any future projects on the Blue Nile.