Ten Years After the Brexit Referendum.. Britain Reassesses Its Position

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A decade after the vote that took Britain out of the European Union, the relationship with Brussels returns to the forefront of the British political scene, as Prime Minister Andy Burnham has opened the door to exploring all options, including the possibility of a full return to the EU.

While Paris welcomed the British-European rapprochement, the issue seems to be more than just a modification of post-Brexit agreements, as Britain reopens a question that has been present since the separation: Was leaving the end of the relationship with Europe, or just a phase that can be reconsidered?

Although the British Prime Minister did not propose an immediate decision to return his country to the European Union, he stated that the country should explore the future of its relationship with European partners and consider the available options, starting from maintaining the current status, moving through returning to the customs union or the single market, and culminating in 'going all the way' and rejoining the European Union, according to what was reported by 'Reuters'.

Burnham had previously clarified that Brexit caused more harm than benefits, considering that Britain's exit did not fulfill the promises that accompanied the separation campaign, and that the country has become economically weaker and less effective in dealing with the immigration issue.

While it is expected that the British Prime Minister will present a vision for various options in conjunction with the upcoming summit between Britain and the European Union in November, it is likely that no official steps towards returning will begin before the next general elections scheduled for mid-2029.

The story began on June 23, 2016, when the British voted in a historic referendum in favor of leaving the European Union by 51.9% compared to 48.1% for remaining, with a voter turnout of 72.2%, according to Reuters.

The aim of this step was to regain control over laws, borders, and immigration, along with objections to Britain's relationship with EU institutions, which were the main themes that fueled the exit campaign, which raised the slogan "Take Back Control." Following the referendum, London officially launched the withdrawal process on March 29, 2017, by activating Article 50 of the EU Treaty.

After years of negotiations, delays, and political struggles within the British Parliament, the United Kingdom officially left the European Union on January 31, 2020, entering a transitional phase that lasted until the end of that year.

Then, on December 31, 2020, the transitional phase ended, and Britain left the single market and the European customs union, effectively beginning a new phase of trade and political relations with the bloc.

However, the Brexit issue did not disappear after the exit, but remained present in the British political and economic discourse, especially with the ongoing debate about the implications of the separation and the trade relationship with Britain's largest economic partner.

After ten years, polls have shown a clear shift in public mood. According to the latest YouGov data, 57% of Britons believe that the decision to leave the European Union was wrong, compared to 30% who found it right.

Another poll showed that 55% supported the idea of Britain returning to the European Union in principle. However, support drops significantly when potential return conditions are raised, such as losing the privileges that Britain previously enjoyed.

In the same context, a study by the European Council on Foreign Relations indicated that about three-quarters of Britons expressed a desire for a closer relationship with the European Union.

Meanwhile, a survey that included European countries showed that 66% of citizens from the surveyed countries supported Britain's return to the Union.

However, these numbers do not necessarily mean unconditional support for a return, as the details of the future relationship, and whether London will accept European rules and obligations, remain a crucial factor in the level of support.

The idea of returning to the European Union did not emerge with Burnham, but gradually expanded within the British arena in recent years. Among the most prominent voices supporting it is former Prime Minister Tony Blair, who called in September of this year for Britain to work towards rejoining the Union within the next ten years.

Senior officials in the Labour Party have previously described Brexit as a mistake, while others have suggested the idea of gradually approaching the European market and the customs union instead of moving directly to full membership.

Thus, Burnham's statements represent a development in the level of political discourse, as they do not merely call for a closer relationship but also place full return among the options that should be considered.

As for the French welcome, it was not surprising and does not represent the first European signal regarding the possibility of Britain's return, as French President Emmanuel Macron previously confirmed that the door is open for Britain. He also indicated during his recent visit to the United Kingdom a willingness to advance the process of resetting relations between London and the European Union.

However, other European countries have preceded Paris in announcing their openness to the idea of a return. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez confirmed that Madrid would "certainly" support Britain's membership if London decides to start the process of rejoining, while Finnish President Alexander Stubb described Britain as a potential candidate for membership, stating that Europe "misses" its British voice. Last May, the European Green Party officially called for Britain to rejoin the union, according to The Guardian.

In France itself, it wasn't just Macron; former French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal called for Britain's return last June, considering Brexit to be catastrophic, while emphasizing Britain's importance for Europe's security and its role in defense and strategic issues.

However, the road from proposing the idea to implementing it is long and complex. Returning to the European Union would not simply mean canceling the results of the 2016 referendum, but would require a new accession process and negotiations with member states and EU institutions regarding the terms of membership.

But the most complicated question remains the conditions under which Britain would return. London had special exemptions before Brexit, including not joining the eurozone and the Schengen Area. Polls show that this specific point could become an obstacle; British support for returning declines when voters are asked to envision Britain returning without its previous privileges. In France and Germany as well, YouGov polls indicate that a majority of those supporting Britain's return believe it should adhere to key European policies.

There are also other models of lesser membership that could be proposed, such as returning to the single market or the customs union, or a formula similar to the relationship the EU has with countries like Norway or Switzerland, which are options that grant Britain varying degrees of access to the European market in exchange for commitments and shared rules.

Within the British interior, Burnham's statements did not go unchallenged. The "Reform UK" party accused the Prime Minister of trying to bring Britain back to Brussels "through the back door," while opponents warned against reopening the divisions caused by the 2016 referendum, according to "Reuters."

Moreover, within the camp of those supporting closer ties with Europe, there are more cautious voices that believe the priority should be to improve the relationship with the European Union practically, rather than turning the issue of full return into a new political battle. Therefore, there remains a distinction between calling for greater rapprochement with Europe and making an official decision to rejoin.

After ten years since the vote to leave, Britain does not seem to be facing an immediate decision to return to the European Union, as much as it appears to be reopening the file anew. Burnham has laid several paths on the table, from maintaining the current situation to returning to the single market or customs union, up to full membership.

In contrast, European capitals seem more willing than in past years to discuss a closer British relationship, although full return will require new conditions and negotiations. As the anticipated British-European summit approaches in November, the question that many thought was settled in 2016 returns to the heart of British politics: Was Brexit the end of the road with Europe, or has Britain already begun searching for a way back?