Analysis.. Russia Faces a "Spring of Discontent" and Putin Responds in the Only Way He Knows

Analysis by Nathan Hodge - After four years of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia is facing a spring of popular discontent, as repeated internet outages in Russian cities have sparked anger among ordinary citizens, and growing public dissatisfaction against Russian President Vladimir Putin is beginning to emerge. Russia has managed to overcome the economic difficulties caused by the war, while its security apparatus works to control protests.

The conflict in the Middle East has unexpectedly boosted the Russian war effort through rising oil prices. However, it seems that the repressive state apparatus in Russia is significantly intensifying its efforts.

In recent weeks, law enforcement authorities have launched a new wave of prominent arrests and political raids. At the same time, the Russian government is working to revive the ghosts of the Soviet past.

The latest example of this: On Tuesday, officials from the Russian Investigative Committee raided the offices of one of the largest publishing houses in Russia, arresting employees, following a year-long criminal investigation into what authorities claim is a case of "gay propaganda." The publishing house "Exmo" owns a subsidiary called "Popcorn Books" that specializes in publishing young adult fiction.

One of its titles seems to have drawn particular scrutiny: the novel "Summer of the Tie-Wearing Leader," which was a bestseller in 2021, revolves around a same-sex love story between two young men at a Soviet summer camp. Authorities arrested several individuals associated with the publishing house last year, and "Popcorn Books" was closed in January.

Russia has long been hostile to what it considers dangerous Western ideas under Putin, with the Kremlin leader portraying himself as a defender of traditional values. In 2023, the Russian Supreme Court declared what Russian authorities call the "International LGBTQ Movement" a terrorist organization, imposing severe criminal penalties on LGBTQ rights activism, or seemingly, in the case of "Exmo," on publishing.

The official Russian news agency TASS reported that senior executives of "Exmo" were released on bail after being interrogated. However, the publishing industry is not the only area where freedom of expression is diminishing in Russia.

Earlier this month, police raided the offices of "Novaya Gazeta," the independent newspaper whose co-founder won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2021. The Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported, citing the Ministry of Internal Affairs, that journalist Oleg Roldugin was detained for questioning regarding a criminal case concerning the alleged illegal handling of personal data, and Roldugin denied any wrongdoing before the hearing.

"Novaya Gazeta" was forced to close its print edition after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but it continues to publish online, and this raid is pushing what remains of free journalism in Russia to the margins. Publishing independent news in Russia is already a difficult task.

The government bans popular social media platforms like Facebook and Instagram, and seeks to impose a state-controlled messaging app called "Max" to be the virtual gateway for digital services for the population. The raid on "Novaya Gazeta" coincided with the Russian Supreme Court's designation of the "Memorial" organization, a prominent human rights group, as "extremist."

Volker Turk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, stated that this designation "effectively criminalizes important human rights work" in Russia. As the assault on the press continues, authorities are reviving old symbols of political repression.

Just a few days ago, the academy of the Russian Federal Security Service, where Putin trained to become a Soviet intelligence agent (KGB), was renamed in honor of Felix Dzerzhinsky, the terrifying founder of the Soviet secret police. The removal of Dzerzhinsky's statue in front of the Soviet intelligence headquarters in 1991 was one of the symbolic acts that represented the end of the Soviet Union.

However, it seems that the authorities in Russia are determined to embrace the country's dark and authoritarian past. Reuters reported on Thursday that the embassies of Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia lodged a protest with the Russian Foreign Ministry after a memorial complex in the Siberian city of Tomsk dedicated to the victims of the Soviet secret police was dismantled.

Earlier this month, Russia sparked outrage when it held an exhibition that some commentators deemed a desecration of the Katyn memorial, the site of the mass execution of Polish prisoners of war by the Soviets in 1940. But if the Russian government is working to revive the ghosts of the Soviet past and increase the suffering of Russian citizens, Putin himself shows open indifference.

Putin broke his silence on Thursday regarding the repeated internet outages that hit the Russian capital in early March. He said, "I can only point out what people are also facing in major cities - it is rare, but unfortunately it does happen."

I mean some problems and outages in major urban areas." Putin stated that the unpopular internet outages - which affected e-commerce and made many applications and electronic services unavailable - were "linked to operational activities aimed at preventing terrorist attacks."

But he also seemed to suggest that the public's need for knowledge was limited. He said, "The widespread dissemination of public information in advance can be harmful to the conduct of operations, because criminals - after all - hear and see everything." "And of course, if information reaches them, they will adjust their criminal behavior and plans."

In other words, life in wartime means having to endure a degree of inconvenience. The Russian security apparatus, which is working to expand and deepen the crackdown on civil life, shows no signs of retreat.