Trump's statements revive the Renaissance Dam file

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US President Donald Trump has re-highlighted the ongoing dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Renaissance Dam, after he criticized the project and described US funding for it as “stupid.”

Trump said on Friday that the Ethiopians "took all the water from the Nile River," adding that he had been able to solve this problem, in reference to the dam crisis, without revealing the nature of the solution he intended or whether he was talking about a new American move to end the dispute.

While these statements brought the Renaissance Dam file back into the spotlight, in light of the continuing dispute between Cairo and Addis Ababa over managing the Nile waters and ensuring the water rights of the downstream countries.

It also opened the door to questions about the possibility of the United States becoming involved again in efforts to address the crisis that has remained unresolved for more than a decade and a half, without official indications of any new American action.

In this context, Ibrahim Saif Minshawy, assistant professor of international law and international organization at the Faculty of Economics and Political Science at Cairo University, believed that settling the conflict requires the United States to work through mediation mechanisms and peaceful means, while emphasizing the necessity of preserving Egyptian water rights in the Nile River.

Minshawy explained to Al-Arabiya.net/Al-Hadath.net that the Renaissance Dam affects the quantities of water reaching Egypt, which raises legal problems related to international agreements, most notably the United Nations Convention on the Use of International Watercourses for Non-Navigational Purposes of 1997, which established the principles of prior notification, not causing significant harm to other countries, and cooperation between riparian countries when implementing water projects.

He also added that the Ethiopian position raises questions about the extent of adherence to these principles, especially in the absence of a binding agreement regulating the rules for filling and operating the dam. He also stressed that Trump's statements reaffirm the importance of Egyptian water rights, and highlight the need to address the dispute through negotiations and adherence to the provisions of international law.

Regarding Trump’s criticism of the American financing of the project, Minshawy pointed out that there are various considerations that may have led Washington to adopt different positions towards the dam during the past years, considering that the recent statements may contribute to re-activating the file, especially in light of the continuing tension between Egypt and Ethiopia.

He also stressed that Egypt constantly affirms its adherence to its historical rights to the waters of the Nile, and does not compromise in protecting its water security, while maintaining all the tools and mechanisms necessary to protect its water interests.

For his part, the responsible director of the Arab-European Center for International Law, Ahmed Ghazi, considered that Trump’s statements re-highlighted the dimension related to Egyptian national security, given that the Nile River represents the main source of life and development in Egypt.

Ghazi stated to Al-Arabiya.net/Al-Hadath.net that any international position that recognizes the dangers resulting from Ethiopian unilateral measures may contribute to revitalizing diplomatic efforts and advancing the path of settlement.

He also stressed that the Egyptian position is based on legitimate water rights and interests and on well-established rules in international law regulating the use of shared rivers. He explained that Egypt's primary dependence on the waters of the Nile River as a downstream country requires taking into account its water needs when making any decisions related to water flow or constructing and operating dams in upstream countries.

Ghazi also pointed out that water relations in the Nile Basin are governed by a group of agreements, including the 1929 agreement, and the 1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan regarding the use of the Nile waters, in addition to the United Nations Convention on International Watercourses, which established the principles of fair and reasonable use and preventing causing serious harm to other countries.

He stressed that Ethiopia's right to development and electricity generation does not cancel its international obligations, nor does it exempt it from the necessity of reaching understandings with downstream countries that guarantee achieving common interests and preserving Egyptian water rights.

It is noteworthy that during his first term, Trump sponsored negotiation rounds between Egypt and Ethiopia with the aim of reaching a binding agreement on the rules for filling and operating the dam.

These negotiations resulted in the preparation of a draft agreement, which Egypt signed in initials in February 2020, while Ethiopia withdrew from the final round and refused to sign.

Following Addis Ababa's refusal to sign and begin implementing the unilateral filling of the dam's reservoir, the Trump administration took a firm stance, as in September 2020 it froze part of US financial and military aid to Ethiopia worth approximately $100 million, stressing the necessity of not operating the dam without an agreement with the downstream countries.

Trump also crowned his position in October of the same year with fiery statements in which he warned of the repercussions of the crisis on Egyptian water security, saying that the continuation of the dispute could lead to dangerous scenarios, referring to the possibility of “blowing up the dam” if a solution was not reached.

It appears that Trump is seeking, during his current term, to revive settlement efforts in one of the most complex issues in Africa, as the Renaissance Dam crisis has been stagnating for more than 15 years, amid fears of its repercussions on the stability of the Horn of Africa region.