Netanyahu may go... but his policies continue

Is there a possibility that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the ruling right-wing coalition will not be able to obtain enough seats in the upcoming elections to enable him to reconstitute the government? The answer is yes, and if that happens, what are the expected results regarding Israeli policies towards the Gaza Strip, Palestine, southern Lebanon, and the rest of the region? Will we witness large-scale changes in these policies, or do the policies not depend on the person of the Prime Minister or even all members of the government? When the events of October 7, 2023, occurred, opinion polls indicated that the government’s chances in the event of any elections being held were almost non-existent, but Netanyahu took advantage of his skills, quirks, and political experience, which made him improve his position greatly. The latest polls, the results of which were published just two days ago, revealed that the “Ya’shar” party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, the former chief of staff, would obtain 21 seats, and the Likud, led by Netanyahu, would obtain 18, and “Together,” Led by Naftali Bennett, it will get 13 seats, the “Democrats”, led by Yair Golan, will get 9 seats, “Israel Our Home”, led by Avigdor Lieberman, will get 8 seats, the same number for the Joint Arab List, and “Jewish Forces”, led by Itamar Ben Gvir, will get 8 seats, and the same for “United Torah Judaism”, as for the Shas party, it will get 7 seats, and the Arab “Ra’am” list will get 6, and the same thing for the “United Torah Judaism” party. Religious Zionism led by Smotrich. If we collect these numbers, Gadi Eisenkot’s camp will obtain 48% compared to 41% for Netanyahu’s camp, while the Arab parties will obtain the remaining percentage. Despite the delay of Netanyahu and his camp, this does not mean Eisenkot’s ability to form a coalition of 61 seats, to guaranteeThe majority in the 120-seat Knesset, unless his camp allies with the Arab bloc in the Knesset, which is a possibility that has become difficult for the majority of Israeli parties, even if they are opposition. Until we know the actual results after the elections end on October 27, we will discuss in these lines the extent of the impact of these expected results on Palestine and the Arabs. One of the biggest mistakes of many Arab observers, analysts and experts is that Netanyahu’s failure to form a comfortable government with his extremist coalition will mean that all the region’s problems will be solved. Immediately, peace will prevail throughout the region. They believe that the problem is only with the person of Netanyahu or his government, especially the most extremist ministers, perhaps in all of Israel’s history. By following the Israeli political scene since the formation of Netanyahu’s current government on December 29, 2022, until now, it has become clear that these are the policies of the State of Israel, and not just this government. One of the important facts that many Arab observers and analysts ignore is that the Likud Party, led by Netanyahu, has governed Israel almost permanently since 1996 until now, with the exception of small, intermittent periods, during which the Labor Party, led by Ehud Barak, rose. So the issue, in short, is that the one who brings the Likud governments is the Israeli voter, and therefore what has changed is the composition of Israeli society, and it is moving more and more towards the extreme right. We remember that the Labor Party with leftist tendencies is the one that ruled Israel for most of the periods from the founding of Israel in 1948 until 1996, with the exception of a few periods in which the “right” ruled, especially the period when Menachem Begin’s government took over, which signed the peace agreement with Egypt in 1996.1979. Now the popularity of the left and center parties has declined in general, and they no longer have a strong real representation in the Knesset. The evidence for this is that the Labor Party, which played the largest role in the founding of Israel under its leadership, David Ben-Gurion, no longer has except 4 seats in the Knesset, even after its alliance with Meretz, and its name was changed to “Democrats”, and it is headed by Meir Golan. The popularity of the majority of the left and center parties, especially the Greens, has also declined. The essential point that I want to draw. The focus on it is not on the person of Netanyahu or the rest of the members of his government, or even on the Israeli political scene as a whole, but rather lies mainly on the majority of the Israeli people who elect these extreme right-wing parties. The people are the ones who go to the ballot boxes and choose Netanyahu, Smotrich, Ben Gvir, Lapid, Eisenkot, or Bennett, and the important point that we should stand on is that if the Israelis decide on October 27th not to give Netanyahu a majority that enables him to form the government, that will not change the policies. The reason is that the candidates to succeed him in the rest of the various parties do not differ from him in basic lines. They oppose his person and some of his actions, but for example they reject the establishment of any independent Palestinian state. Most of them even refuse to withdraw from Gaza, and some of them demanded the use of weapons of mass destruction to annihilate it. When Netanyahu went to the Knesset more than once during the past three years to request a vote on preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state to confront external pressures, all the majority of the Israeli parties supported him in that. Israeli parties can disagree on issues as diverse as judicial reform, Haredi recruitment, or secularismThe state or many social and economic matters, but they completely agree on the need for Israel to be the strongest in the region. The difference perhaps between them is in the way this is implemented. Some want this to be done with rough force, and some prefer silk gloves!