Three Criteria Determine the Winner of the Ballon d'Or.. What Are the Chances for Messi, Mbappe, Yamal, and Others?

Thirty players are competing for the Ballon d'Or for 2026, with the winner to be announced on October 26 in the British capital, London. However, the main contenders have started to emerge, and below we review the most prominent names expected to compete for the award and each of their chances. The chances of each player will be measured based on the three criteria on which voting is based: individual performance, collective achievement, and fair play.

Lionel Messi has become the Argentine star Lionel Messi, the oldest player (non-goalkeeper) to enter the list of the 30 nominees for the Ballon d'Or. On an individual level, Messi scored 8 goals and assisted 4 others, and he has signed off on 32 goals this year for both club and country in 35 matches played.

On the collective level, 'Leo' reached the World Cup final with his national team and led his team Inter Miami to win the Major League Soccer title and the American-Mexican Super Cup (Campeones Cup). Regarding fair play, Messi did not receive any red cards this year and received 3 yellow cards with his club.

Based on this, Leo is considered one of the candidates to win the most important individual award in football for the ninth time in his career. Kylian Mbappe had a historic World Cup tournament with his national team, winning the tournament's top scorer award after scoring 10 goals and contributing to the 'Les Bleus' reaching the semifinals, and he became the all-time top scorer in the World Cup with 22 goals.

At his club Real Madrid, Mbappe won the top scorer award in La Liga last season by scoring 25 goals, and he was also the top scorer in the UEFA Champions League with 15 goals. However, on the collective level, Mbappe did not win any titles with his club or national team during the past year.

Mbappe did not receive any red cards and received 8 yellow cards last season. Although he did not win any titles with his club or national team, Mbappe's personal achievement standard makes him a strong contender for the award.

Lamine Yamal, the 19-year-old player, fiercely enters the race for the Ballon d'Or after having an exceptional year in which he scored 18 goals and provided 7 assists so far. On the collective level, Yamal won the World Cup with the Spanish national team, even though he was not at his peak due to returning from an injury he sustained before the tournament, and he also won the La Liga title with Barcelona and the Spanish Super Cup.

He did not receive any red cards this year and received 7 yellow cards across all competitions. According to these three criteria, Yamal will be a strong contender for the Ballon d'Or this year.

Harry Kane scored 77 goals in 2026 and provided 7 assists, winning the European Golden Shoe last season after scoring 36 goals in the Bundesliga. On the collective level, Kane won the Bundesliga title, the DFB-Pokal, and reached the semi-finals of the World Cup with his national team, securing a bronze medal in the tournament.

Kane did not receive any red cards last season and only received 3 yellow cards throughout this year. The quartet from Paris The chances of the Paris Saint-Germain quartet, Georgian Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Moroccan Achraf Hakimi, Spanish Fabian Ruiz, and French Ousmane Dembélé, remain in the running.

According to individual and collective standards, Kvara, Hakimi, and Dembélé shone remarkably last season, but the absence of the first in the World Cup, Dembélé's position under Mbappé in the French national team during the World Cup, and Hakimi's defensive role may slightly weaken their chances, as no defender has won the Ballon d'Or since 2006 when the Italian Fabio Cannavaro won it. As for Fabian, he has won all possible collective titles such as the Champions League and the World Cup, but individually he was not the standout player in his team or national team in both tournaments.

The chances of the French player Michael Olise remain alive due to his brilliance last season with Bayern Munich and the French national team in the World Cup.