The joke of the season... Iranian mediation in Yemen

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Iran cannot use humor to cover up its Yemeni policy. Politics remains one thing and jokes are another. When it comes to political jokes, there is every time the fear that these jokes will turn into jokes that express a desire to be smart and nothing more. Whoever thinks that he can pass on a joke of the type of Iranian mediation between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis is laughing at himself first.

Aside from the bad and bad jokes, what the “Islamic Republic” is doing, through Yemen, is nothing but an intensified follow-up of the attack on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which in the past few years has done everything it can to reach a formula of understanding that preserves regional stability. Perhaps what most confirms this is the Saudi-Iranian agreement that was reached in Beijing (Beijing) under Chinese sponsorship on March 10, 2023.

The agreement explicitly stipulated that Iran would avoid any interference in the affairs of other countries. The “Islamic Republic” did not respect any clause in the agreement, but rather temporarily restrained the Houthis in Yemen before allowing them to move again after it made its own calculations based, at the present time, on linking the Straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab.

The Iranian behavior, which culminated in a declaration of readiness to mediate with the Houthis, falls within the context of a classic, twisted game that the former Syrian regime, which fell when Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow, had previously played. Such a game has become obsolete, and has become obsolete. Anyone who practices terrorism directly or through its tools in the region cannot play the role of firefighter at the same time. Since he took control of Syria in 1970, Hafez al-Assad has previously played the role of firefighter in Lebanon. He would start the fire and then donate to play the role of firefighter. He was comfortable that no regional party would bother him, after he reassured Israel, which had handed over the Golan in 1967, when he was still Minister of Defense, of his intentions.

He did this with Israel on the one hand and reassured the American side that his real goal was to control the armed Palestinian presence in Lebanon on the other hand. Hafez al-Assad succeeded in his plan early. The Americans and Israelis allowed him to enter Lebanon militarily in 1976, under the pretext that he was required to control the Palestinian armed presence.

The first thing the Houthis did after their advance towards the port of Mocha, located on the Yemeni bank from the entrance to the Red Sea, was to confirm that they had no other target except Saudi ships and tankers. The slogan “Death to America, death to Israel, and curse upon the Jews…” has been removed from the Houthi dictionary.

It is impossible to put aside the method adopted by Iran in dealing with Saudi Arabia and with the other Arab Gulf states, that is, the other five countries that are members of the Arab Gulf Cooperation Council. Such a method indicates a desire for blackmail, a desire that has not changed at all since the beginning of Iranian investment in the Houthis, especially since their seizure of Sanaa on September 21, 2014. At that time, the Houthis were able, under Iranian guidance, to pretend that they were a peaceful party that had no objection to Yemeni “legitimacy,” which was represented by the late transitional president Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi. Only days passed before the Houthis placed Abd Rabbo under house arrest after he secured for them a “peace and partnership agreement,” an agreement blessed by the United Nations, represented by Jamal Ben Omar, the envoy of the Secretary-General of the United Nations. More days passed, and the Houthis soon signed an agreement with Iran regarding organizing more than forty flights per week between Sanaa and Tehran airports. On top of all that, the Houthis conducted military maneuvers in a Yemeni area close to the Saudi border, with the sole aim of provocation!

The Iranian presence in Yemen remains directed at all times against Saudi Arabia. The goal is to blackmail the Kingdom, which has a long border with Yemen and is home to hundreds of thousands of Yemenis, whom it has received, in general, for more than six decades, with a great deal of welcome.

The question remains: How will things develop in Yemen in the coming weeks? What is certain is that a lot will depend on how things develop in Iran itself and between America and Iran. This comes at a time when the Yemeni “legitimacy” will have to show that it can actually confront the Iranian-backed Houthi tide, which has increased pressure on Taiz... instead of the battle being at the gates of Sanaa and in its environs. It is a matter of a few weeks after which the truth of the Iranian joke in Yemen will become clear, and it is a joke that has not been fooled and will not fool anyone.