Trump's electoral "setback"... What could it mean for Iran, Israel and Ukraine?

The midterm elections in the United States may have repercussions far beyond its borders, as US President Donald Trump has spent nearly two years undermining decades of American foreign policy, raising concerns among allies and adversaries alike. Now, both parties are awaiting how any internal electoral setback will affect his movements on the international scene.

For Iran, Israel, and Ukraine, the stakes go far beyond who will control Congress; The results may affect whether Trump will seek to reach an agreement with Tehran or move towards more wars, the extent of the erosion of established American support for Israel, and the extent to which he will pressure Kiev to accept conditions that end the Russian war. Democrats will have new tools to challenge Trump, but he still enjoys great freedom of action on the foreign front, which raises a question for world leaders: Will defeat make him more willing to make concessions, or more determined to impose his vision?

Here's how the vote results could impact Washington's most pressing foreign policy issue: Iran gloats, but doesn't guarantee peace Iran is celebrating Trump's setback in the midterm elections, but at the same time it is preparing for what might come next: whether it is in the form of a new US strike, or a new effort to reach an agreement. In a call with Fox News, Trump acknowledged that the war was one of the reasons for his Republican Party’s losses, while his vice president, J.D. Vance, was more frank, writing in a lengthy post on the “X” platform on Wednesday: “The reason we lost is because of the war.”

After 8 months of targeting the region's economic arteries with the aim of pushing American voters to turn against the war, Tehran considered the Republicans' loss as a popular ruling against it. Trump acknowledged that the rise in prices resulting from the war played a role in this.

Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament - who led the negotiations with the United States - wrote on the “X” platform: “If the American government betrays the will of its people to serve international parties that pay it or practice blackmail, it will discover that our saying no will turn into a nightmare.” Tehran is not betting on a change in the course of American policy.

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has stated that anyone who believes that the results will lead to a shift in American policy is “completely mistaken,” and Iranian officials confirm that their country’s strategy does not depend on the American elections, at a time when they are preparing for the possibility of an expansion of the war while at the same time intensifying diplomatic efforts. The risk of escalation is real; Reports indicating that Trump may order new and more severe strikes raise widespread concern in the region, and Tehran has warned that its response will be much broader than in previous rounds.

This week, Trump told some reporters that he was considering a strong strike against Iran, while telling others that he was not planning an immediate escalation. In a statement to the Ufoq News Network, Ali Waez, from the International Crisis Group, said: “The war on Iran has become a heavy political burden on Trump’s shoulders, which puts him before two decisive choices: either reach a face-saving agreement and declare victory, or military escalation to regain the initiative.”

He added: "The danger is that a president who emerged weak from the ballot box may seek to make up for that on the battlefield." Diplomacy remains an available path; The talks - which had been suspended over the summer - resumed last week, and Tehran sent officials to communicate with Qatari mediators who are working to transfer proposals to Washington.

Before the election, Iran offered to open the Strait of Hormuz within two days, provided that Trump agreed to its seven conditions. Sanam Vakil, of the Chatham House Institute, believes that the Iranian leadership “may feel that its position has been validated,” but this “does not necessarily mean that its problems have been solved.”

It indicates that Trump needs a diplomatic victory, but he may fear appearing weak, while Tehran may interpret his electoral stumble as an opportunity to demand more concessions. Wakil expects an intensification of diplomatic efforts in parallel with military threats, considering that reaching a temporary agreement on the Strait of Hormuz seems “more realistic” than reaching a comprehensive agreement. 'End of an era' in US-Israeli relations In Israel, the announcement - coinciding with Election Day - that Trump might suddenly cut off US military aid to the country came as the first surprise.

These results - which saw Democrats sweep both chambers of Congress in what was described as a "blue wave" - ​​represent a very serious alarm bell for Israel. Mutual, bipartisan American support for Israel was already eroding; Anger has prevailed among Democrats over the death toll in the Gaza war, while a growing number of Republicans believe that the United States has provided too much support to Israel.

In a statement to Ufaq News, Michael Oren, the former Israeli ambassador to the United States, said: “The only issue that currently enjoys bipartisan consensus is criticism of Israel.” He added: "This issue has become a fundamental pillar in the orientations of the Democratic Party, and it has also begun to become a pillar in the orientations of a large part of the Republican Party."

Oren pointed out that ending American aid is only the beginning of a path whose features are just beginning to unfold, pointing out that it is possible that the United States will stop exchanging intelligence information with Israel and joint development of extremely important military systems, such as the “Iron Dome” air defense system. He also pointed to the United Nations Security Council, where US presidents - both Republican and Democratic - have vetoed Israel's protection. “We are at the end of an era," he said.

Jacob Katz, former editor-in-chief of the Jerusalem Post, warned that “what is coming may be greater.” He wrote on the “X” platform, saying: “What Trump announced yesterday regarding military aid is only the tip of the iceberg of what may change: arms sales may be disrupted, sanctions may be imposed, and funds for joint economic programs may be withdrawn.” Anti-Israel sentiment intensified during the war on Iran, as segments of American voters viewed the joint strikes between the United States and Israel as a war that Netanyahu convinced Trump to wage.

Even now, Netanyahu continues to push for the resumption of strikes against Iran, which would spark a new war - one that has already caused fuel prices and the cost of living to rise, and contributed to the Republican Party's disastrous performance in the midterm elections. On the internal level, Netanyahu is facing turmoil. In the elections that took place a week before the US midterm elections, Netanyahu lost his parliamentary majority.

In contrast, his main competitor, former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, does not have an absolute majority, which likely forces him to seek cooperation with Arab parties that witnessed record electoral participation. For his part, Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democrats party, warned that Israel “does not have time to waste” in replacing Netanyahu and sparing the country from falling under sanctions and international isolation.

Ukraine awaits a post-Trump world For Kiev, the reaction came before the elections, while relative silence prevailed on Wednesday. Over the course of weeks, President Volodymyr Zelensky's relationship with Trump witnessed a rapid deterioration. Trump demanded that Zelensky be replaced and sought to conclude deals in the energy sector that would benefit Russia, while Ukraine continued to witness - without clear justification - the obstruction of its dependence on the United States in the fields of technology and intelligence.

Thus, Kiev found itself forced to take an early position: to wait, with great urgency, for a post-Trump world. As Wednesday dawned, there were few official comments from Kiev; It seems that the Ukrainian president was content to leave the task of expressing his position to the “memes” that spread on the Internet, which depicted him sitting down, drinking beer and popcorn, and watching television coverage of the US midterm elections.

In statements to Ukrainian television, Sergei Kyslytsya, an official in Zelensky's office, confirmed that his country will continue to "develop real, normal, and stable relations" with any party assuming power, and will seek to obtain Patriot defense systems, while at the same time dealing with the new Congress and the subsequent stream of executive orders that may attempt to circumvent the role of Congress. It is undeniable that the decline in Donald Trump's standing - with the end of his political era approaching and the influence of his worldview fading - is in Kiev's interest.

Trump previously claimed that it was easy to reach peace, but in return he punished Ukraine for its refusal to yield to the invader’s demands. Trump deliberately humiliated and rebuked Zelensky, before sometimes reconciling with him, in behavior that angered European allies who were shocked by the collapse of decades-old security alliances.

Ukraine still desperately needs the support of Trump and the United States; Whether by providing weapons and money, or providing broader guarantees that Washington stands by it. But Kiev realized, after months of hostility, that it could not rely entirely on Washington.

However, there is a negative side to this time that is facing everyone; It is the possibility that Russian President Vladimir Putin will see that he has about one year - before the 2028 elections return Republican policy to its traditional supportive of Ukraine path - to achieve the best possible outcome in the war he has chosen to wage, whatever the cost. So far, Putin has failed to exploit his supposed ally, Trump, to achieve any significant victory on the battlefield. So he may seek to change this reality before the remnants of Trump's influence completely fade.