Documents Reveal a Secret Russian Plan to Massively Expand Drone Production

Moscow is seeking to expand its capacity to produce tens of thousands of attack drones that it uses to strike Ukrainian cities, according to plans from a state-owned Russian company obtained by Politico.

The expansion of the Alabuga-Vologno plant, part of Rosatom in the Republic of Tatarstan, will allow for an additional production of 500 tons per year of carbon fiber used in aerospace and military industries by 2029. This lightweight and durable material is a key component in the manufacturing of drone airframes.

One expert estimated that the increase in production could allow for the manufacture of about 28,000 additional attack drones annually, representing a 78% increase in the production of weapons of the type used in the attack on a passenger train near the Polish border this month, and in other attacks that resulted in the deaths of dozens of Ukrainian civilians.

Ukrainian estimates indicate that Russia can currently produce more than 36,000 suicide drones annually of the

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This factory is considered a key link in the Russian military and industrial supply chain, and it is the same one that received earlier this year a disguised shipment of 46 tons of chemical materials for carbon fibers from a state-owned Chinese company, according to internal shipping and customs documents from Rosatom.

For its part, the Chinese embassy in Washington stated that it is unaware of Russian expansion plans for drone production, emphasizing that China "imposes strict controls on the export of dual-use materials in accordance with the law."

Meanwhile, documents related to business, designs, and constructions, collected by Russian sources for the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center close to the Ukrainian government, revealed details about the factory's expansion and plans for its equipment and facilities.

According to a knowledgeable U.S. official, the select committee on China in the U.S. House of Representatives reviewed the documents and concluded that they are authentic.

The Ukrainian government also confirmed the authenticity of the documents, according to a Ukrainian official who requested anonymity.

The Russian government approved Rosatom's plan in May to establish a new production line at the Alabuga-Vologno plant for the production of chemical fibers and threads with a capacity of up to 500 tons of carbon fibers annually.

Satellite images between May and July showed that the land designated for expansion next to the existing plant in Tatarstan had been prepared for construction.

Other images from August indicated that the groundwork for the new plant had already begun. Arms expert David Albright stated that the timeline for completing the project by 2027 requires a rapid construction pace.

Experts noted that drones allow Russia to carry out large-scale attacks on deep targets within Ukraine from multiple locations, with the ability to deplete Ukrainian air defense systems. Serhiy Kuzan, head of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, warned that the expansion of Alabuga facilities and associated companies poses a challenge not only to Ukraine but also represents a long-term security threat to all of Europe.

Simultaneously, Moscow is working to increase its domestic production of carbon fibers to reduce its dependence on Chinese imports, as part of a national plan targeting the production of about 130,000 drones by 2030 under the "Unmanned Aerial Systems" project, with this number raised to 350,000 drones by 2035.

The Alabuga-Vologda plant will contribute to achieving this goal. Documents from Rosatom indicated that among the reasons for the expansion are "substituting dual-use imports" and "meeting the needs of Russian strategic sectors, including aviation and defense industries, for carbon fibers.",

Albright estimated that the full capacity of the plant could be sufficient to produce the structures of about 28,000 "Shahed 136" drones. The Russian offensive "Geran-2" drones rely on the Iranian design of the "Shahed" drone.

He explained that carbon fibers are an essential component in manufacturing these drones, as they are used to reinforce wings, internal structures, fuel tanks, and engines, and cannot be easily replaced without increasing weight and reducing efficiency.

He also pointed out that Russia currently does not obtain enough of the primary material "PAN" necessary for producing high-specification carbon fibers to meet all its defense needs, which explains its efforts to expand local production.

This information comes as the drones produced at the Alabuga complex have become an essential part of the Russian strategy in targeting Ukrainian forces and civilian infrastructure.

Ukrainian officials have called for tightening control over the supply of sensitive components, enhancing the enforcement of sanctions, and disrupting the logistical supply chains associated with this industrial complex.

As European concerns have increased amid the ongoing Ukrainian war and the lack of signs of its imminent end, there are worries about Russia continuing to expand its air military capabilities, even in the event of a political settlement or peace agreement in the future.