Analysis... How did Lula stop the right-wing tide that was linking Latin America to Trump within 20 days?

Analysis by Alessandra Freitas and Gonzalo Zegarra from Ofoq News en Español - Luis Inácio Lula da Silva made history, Sunday, setting a record in Brazil and the whole of Latin America; He became the first president to win a fourth term, and he achieved this a few days before he turned eighty-one years old, an age at which many other leaders decide to retire from politics. The Brazilian president made a remarkable comeback against his right-wing rival, Flavio Bolsonaro, thus achieving a new record. Since the return of democracy to Brazil in 1985, no president has succeeded in recovering from his loss in the first round of elections.

The Labor Party candidate received more than 10 million additional votes during the three weeks between the two voting rounds, while his competitor received only 3.6 million votes. The difference was decisive enough to guarantee Lula a greater lead than he achieved in 2022, when he defeated Jair Bolsonaro - Flavio's father - who was president at the time.

This return also allows Lula to remain a leading figure in the leftist movement in the region, at a time when the right is making progress in other countries in Latin America, where the governments of many of them are now lining up alongside the White House during the era of Donald Trump. Like his father did four years ago, Flavio Bolsonaro refused to acknowledge the result, and announced that he would seek to invalidate the elections through the judiciary.

The senator appealed the decision of Federal Supreme Court Judge Cristiano Zanin to extend the voting period by two hours, arguing that the uneven application of this measure undermined the principle of equal voting opportunities. In this regard, he said: “It is impossible to recognize the election results under the circumstances in which these events took place.”

Bolsonaro's statements did not spoil the celebrations of Lula's historic achievement. However, the political power of the right may hinder the smooth running of its new administration.

This victory confirms Lula's ability to withstand politically, but Bolsonaro's defeat does not weaken the right's grip on Congress and state governments. This is the paradox that characterizes Lula's upcoming term: a historic electoral victory, matched by a limited margin of governance.

Geography helps explain how Lula was able to come back from falling behind in the first round. In the state of Minas Gerais, which includes the second largest voting bloc in Brazil, his situation went from a loss by a margin of approximately 590,000 votes to a victory by a margin of approximately 99,000 votes. This represents a net change of approximately 690,000 votes in the difference between the two candidates.

The vote of this state - whose voters have always sided with the winning candidate in every direct presidential election since 1989 - was again consistent with the result at the national level. Although Flavio maintained his lead in the states of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, Lula succeeded in winning in the capitals of these two states - the two largest cities in Brazil - and was also able to turn the result of the first round in the city of Rio de Janeiro in his favor.

His gains were boosted by victories in all nine northeastern states, as well as high voter turnout; The abstention rate decreased from 21.08% in the first round to about 19.2% in the runoff, which prompted nearly three million additional Brazilians to go to the polls. This additional turnout cannot be entirely attributed to Lula, but it highlights the importance of mobilizing those who did not vote; In the first round, the difference between the two candidates was just over 2.2 million votes.

The battle also took place on Brazilians' phones. After coming in second place in the first round, Lula intensified his digital mobilization efforts to expand his reach and convert support into votes.

The challenge was not only to convince undecided voters, but also to ensure that his supporters actually went to the polls. These efforts were accompanied by last-minute measures and proposals aimed at addressing the tangible concerns of voters.

Lula signed a measure raising the revenue cap allowed for individual small entrepreneurs, introduced new initiatives to renegotiate consumer debt, and called for an end to online betting, the expansion of which has contributed to increased household indebtedness. Regarding security, he adopted a traditional right-wing position; He supported lowering the age of criminal responsibility in cases of very serious crimes.

The move came in response to demands for a tougher approach to crime, another major election issue. This victory allows Lula to remain in power, but it also requires him to meet the expectations he raised in order to achieve it.

More than one challenge awaits us. After celebrating his victory, Lula will face a legislative challenge. The right-wing parties will have 303 seats out of 513 seats in the House of Representatives, compared to 124 seats for the left and 86 seats for the center. In the Senate, the right will control nearly two-thirds of the seats.

This does not mean that each of these legislators will automatically be an opponent, but it does mean that Lula will have to build alliances beyond his own political base, in order to move forward with his proposals and defend his government’s priorities. The map of state governments also shows how much power the conservative camp still holds.

During the two rounds of voting, the “Liberal Party” - to which Bolsonaro belongs - won the position of governor in five states, while the “Republicans Party” and the “Progressive Party” each won four positions, while the “Workers’ Party” also won four positions. As for the Social Democratic Party, which includes politicians with diverse political alliances, it won five other positions.

Negotiations with these governors will be an additional challenge for Lula, who will need their cooperation at the state level to implement his policies. “Once we won the elections, we no longer had opponents,” Lula said in his victory speech.

He also touched on the challenge of negotiating with a more conservative legislative body, saying: “I did not choose Congress, but the people chose it. This is the Congress that I will work with and through which I will accomplish tasks.”

The most pressing challenge will be to turn economic gains into tangible relief that Brazilians feel in their daily lives. Perceptions about the economic situation were one of the main reasons for the erosion of Lula's support base during the election campaign.

A decrease in the inflation rate does not mean that prices will return to their previous levels, and an improvement in employment rates does not necessarily compensate for the burden of debt and family expenses. Therefore, dissatisfaction with the cost of living will remain even after the elections.

In addition, addressing this dissatisfaction will be more difficult due to financial constraints; Debt, deficits, and high interest rates limit the government's ability to increase spending and threaten disagreements over how to finance election promises without jeopardizing social programs. With an uncooperative Congress, decisions about who will bear the cost and where cuts will be made will put Lula's ability to negotiate to the test.

The security file will constitute another source of pressure. Lula will have to respond to demands for tougher measures to combat crime, especially since the right has made adopting a tough approach in this regard one of the pillars of its political program. In the final phase of the election campaign, Lula hinted at taking a tougher stance, expressing his willingness to lower the age of criminal responsibility to 16 years in cases of serious crimes; It is a measure adopted by the right and enjoys broad popular support.

It remains to be seen whether this trend - which emerged during the campaign - will be transformed into a concrete proposal. Lula will also face the challenge of preparing a successor in the leftist camp, whose ability to win presidential elections remains closely linked to his personal political standing.

Regional autonomy and isolation Challenges are not limited to Brazil's borders; The return of this progressive leader prevented Trump from achieving his most prominent victories as part of a wave of wins by right-wing candidates who identify with the White House. As head of Latin America's largest economy - whose top trading partner is China - Lula's government has used Brazil's economic heft to counter trade and political demands from Washington; It is a level of independence that only a few neighboring countries have the ability to seek.

On the other hand, Bolsonaro's victory would have constituted a fundamental shift in Washington's efforts to consolidate its hegemony in the hemisphere and curb Beijing's influence. However, Lula faces an extremely difficult regional landscape, and risks finding himself in a state of almost complete isolation.

In a statement to the Ufok News network, Michael Parlberg, an associate professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University and a researcher at the Center for International Policy (CIP), a Washington-based think tank, said, “Lula faces a political environment that is radically different from the one that prevailed when he first took office, during the ‘pink tide’ period (the rise of leftist governments in Latin America). At that time, he had many regional allies, and he was able to deal with various parties in a way that served Brazil’s interests.”

The political scene in the region is also different from what it was when Lula began his third term in 2023, a period in which his allies - such as Alberto Fernandez in Argentina, Gabriel Boric in Chile, and Gustavo Petro in Colombia - were assuming power. “Lula is unlikely to devote his political capital to advancing regional integration initiatives, such as UNASUR, as he did during his first terms in office,” Paarlberg added.

In the absence of ideological allies, this leadership role will be exercised based on Brazil's economic weight; That is, its investments, trade relations, and the “Mercosur” bloc,” in reference to the South American trade bloc. Looking towards Trump and the US midterm elections As Lula prepares to assume his fourth term, he will have to determine his approach to dealing with relations with the United States.

At the United Nations in September, Lula declared - in a letter addressed to Washington - “Brazil is not in anyone’s backyard.” However, his movements were cautious; When the United States imposed a new round of tariffs on Brazilian goods in the middle of the year, Lula left open the possibility of retaliatory measures.

The analyst said: “Lula showed an ability to adapt to Trump, as he balanced between directing harsh criticism at times and making conciliatory gestures.” He added: “For Lula, sovereignty does not necessarily mean confrontation; rather, he believes that confrontation does not necessarily enhance sovereignty.

“Lula is not ideologically anti-American, and he has no difficulty working with right-wing governments.” Paarlberg also said that the re-elected president will closely follow the US midterm elections, in which his position may “improve” if the Republican Party, to which Trump belongs, loses control of one or both chambers of Congress, which could subject the president’s agenda to greater scrutiny.

In addition to putting an end to the series of victories of the right and the candidates supported by Trump, Lula cut another path; Namely, the successive defeats of existing governments, a phenomenon that has been common over the past decade. This raises a broader question about whether the shift towards the right is a permanent wave, or part of a pendulum movement in the political scene.

“Lula’s win shows that the far right, especially Bolsonaro’s movement, has a ceiling on support, as many voters see him as too radical,” Paarlberg said. He added that the result also indicates that the support coming from the White House, and the accompanying package of economic measures, are “not decisive factors” in the elections.

In a Latin America that is increasingly shaped by rising leaders, Lula remains an international statesman and one of the region's most prominent figures on the global stage. After achieving another political achievement, the president - who has set records - has two months before the start of his fourth term, to decide the path he will seek to chart for the largest country in South America over the next four years.