Analyzing what Trump sees as a deal, Putin sees it as a victory for Russia

Analysis by colleague Matthew Chance, Ofoq News Network's chief international affairs correspondent - If Donald Trump were Russia's president, he would undoubtedly reach a quick and easy agreement to end the brutal war in Ukraine, and perhaps even see it as possible within just 24 hours. For Trump, it seems so obvious and a no-brainer.

Ending this ongoing conflict - which has entered its fifth year - will not only stop the killing of thousands of what Trump describes as “beautiful young men” being slaughtered monthly on the front lines, but it will also achieve - and this is most important - huge economic gains. Sanctions imposed on Moscow could be lifted, opening the door to lucrative trade deals. In other words, peace and prosperity will prevail.

But, of course, Trump does not lead Russia; That position is held by President Vladimir Putin, and the Kremlin strongman appears to have little interest in compromising on his stated goals for the war in Ukraine, whether it is to preserve the lives of Russians and Ukrainians, or even to obtain billions of additional dollars for his state treasury. It is this fundamental misunderstanding that has led the Trump administration to make futile efforts to mediate an end to the fighting, something that was clearly demonstrated again during the recent crucial meeting in St. Petersburg between Steve Witkoff, Trump's business friend turned chief negotiator, and Putin himself.

At the table, Putin told Witkov he was "curious" about the outcome of meetings in Norway the day before, where officials from the United States, Europe and NATO met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to formulate possible new peace proposals, which included economic incentives for Moscow. A senior Kremlin aide later confirmed that Trump's envoy had briefed the Russian leader on those discussions, adding - as expected - that "in reality, those proposals were of little real value to resolving the Ukrainian crisis."

This was an entirely expected outcome on the part of the Kremlin, which has steadfastly refused to back down from its hard-line positions, including seeking to control the entire Donbass region in eastern Ukraine, and demanding a say in Kiev's future security arrangements. However, the White House may have sincerely hoped that the Kremlin would show more willingness to compromise, especially after Trump lifted sanctions on Russian diesel exports last week; It is a move driven by political considerations aimed at reducing fuel prices in the United States ahead of the midterm elections, but at the same time it represented a huge economic gain for Moscow.

Later, Trump announced an unsuccessful initiative to stop attacks in the energy sector, which would have obligated Ukraine to stop its effective drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. Amid the exchange of accusations - which in turn affected the exchange of intelligence information between the United States and Ukraine - Trump also called for a change in the Ukrainian leadership. This is something that came completely at the whim of the Kremlin.

As for Moscow, the deals, incentives, and even shared disdain toward Kiev are neither an incentive for cooperation nor retreat, but rather an indication that its strategy toward the United States is beginning to bear fruit. In contrast to Washington's strategy, the Kremlin's strategy is characterized by clarity of vision. The Kremlin leader is well aware of what motivates Trump, and he succeeds - with ease - in distracting his volatile counterpart in the White House by brandishing huge economic deals.

The Kremlin floated more such deals during Witkov's meeting in St. Petersburg; Putin praised the controversial diesel deal, then hinted at the possibility of increasing Russia's exports of biofertilizers to the United States, along with many other opportunities. “We are also discussing various projects, such as data centers, projects in the energy sector, and energy cooperation,” Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund and one of the Kremlin's main interlocutors with Trump administration officials, said after the three-hour talks ended.

The matter is not limited to the economic temptations that the Kremlin uses to win over the other party, or to ensure the presence of a listening ear in the White House. Putin - prior to the St. Petersburg meeting - released 74-year-old American citizen Stephen Hubbard, who Russia had been holding since his capture in Ukraine in 2022, during the start of the comprehensive Russian invasion. Witkov - in a gesture of apparent flattery - described this move as an act that reflects Putin's "humanitarian tendency".

Reports indicate that Hubbard, who is from Michigan, suffered from severe health problems during his four long years of detention in a remote Russian penal colony. However, the White House celebrated his release, considering it evidence of Trump’s prowess in concluding deals and the respect and appreciation that Putin shows for Trump.