Is the Ruling Elite in Israel Changing?

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Despite the flood of public opinion polls in Israel before and after the nomination deadline for the Knesset elections, and the competition among 38 electoral lists vying for 120 seats, with 12 lists expected to succeed and 26 to fail, the situation remains unclear amid the struggle between emerging party leaders such as Yair Golan and Ofer Winter, among others. These leaders lack a clear political vision for managing the state and do not have a history in politics or experience in dealing with the Palestinian conflict or the regional and international environment, although they do have a recognized military history. This contrasts with veteran politicians who have remained in power for years, led by Netanyahu, Lieberman, and others who have gained experience in handling domestic and foreign issues. Although Netanyahu is not a military figure, his supporters believe he has succeeded in managing military relations due to his extensive experience in governance, which drives him to take a proactive approach with most right-wing leaders, including Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, among others, who are rising within a platform of extreme media rhetoric. Therefore, the lack of vision is expected to lead the Israeli state, as echoed by academics and military analysts, to disaster, especially since the candidates from political leadership are still groups of amateurs who view the Knesset elections as an opportunity for political and media visibility based on a previous military history, without having a real understanding of governance, managing situations, and rearranging policies. Perhaps for this reason, the Israeli public will not vote based solely on programs or parties, but rather on individuals, which necessitates a review of the scene, especially since there are those in Israel who believe that the Israeli media, at various levels, will actually vote and will be at the forefront of the choices or real paths that the upcoming elections will work on, especially since discussing the main determinants that will govern the electoral scene will not be fruitful in the end evaluations that can be worked on. In this context, the current reality of the elite or the candidates expected to join the scene indicates that Israel is on the verge of narrow calculations and sterile policies, not only regarding the potential rise of figures without a political legacy but also because the current electoral bidding will not bring forth significant party leadership or credibility in the eyes of the Israeli public. Therefore, there is an expectation that the upcoming elections will witness the phenomena of floating votes and protest voting. Additionally, the rise of Eizenkot's star aligns with this trend, especially since Israeli society has a desire for the return of military figures to power in a direct manner and to practice politics openly.

This matter, along with the will of a society that lacks the desire to move towards peace and grant the Palestinians even a portion of their rights, indeed requires working on multiple paths, including the formation of the upcoming government with specific elements that may not represent a significant change compared to the ongoing transformations and fluctuations in Israeli politics. Although the Likud party has proposed new names, they are mostly aligned with Netanyahu and lack a party vision that can stand on its own. Among these names are Gabi Ashkenazi, Moshe Kahlon, Ron Dermer, Haim Bibas, and others, which indicates that any potential change in the management of the elite is indeed unlikely, and whoever will manage the next Israeli government, whoever it may be, will do so within a framework of potential and controlled rotation, and within a small circle.

This also means that Israeli politics may not witness major changes, and the bet on an alternative to Netanyahu will be within a repetitive framework and will not bring about significant change. All of this is to maintain the management of the Israeli state, determine its course, and direct its policy, regardless of the nature of the elite that will take over leadership. In any case, the centers of power and media are the ones directing any policy that Israel may adopt in the post-election phase. An academic specialized in strategic affairs.