Israel's demonstrations continue...successive crises facing Netanyahu

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Days before the Knesset elections scheduled for October 27, political tension is escalating in Israel, with anti-government protests returning to the streets, coinciding with the Haredi recruitment crisis that threatens to widen divisions within the right-wing camp. While Benjamin Netanyahu puts security and defense of Israel at the forefront of his political discourse, internal pressures are increasing regarding his government’s performance, accountability for the failures of October 7, and exemptions from military service.

In the heart of Tel Aviv, demonstrators gathered yesterday evening, Saturday, to protest the policies of the Netanyahu government, demanding political change and holding those responsible accountable, in a move that comes days before the Israelis head to the polls. The scene was not limited to government opponents, as the city witnessed a smaller gathering to protest the violence of Israeli settlers against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, with demands to stop the attacks and hold those responsible accountable, according to Reuters.

The demands of the demonstrators in Tel Aviv came to form an official investigation committee into the failures of October 7, and this crisis is considered one of the most prominent issues facing the Netanyahu government before the Knesset elections. The dispute centers on who will undertake the investigation and its powers.

As the opposition forces insist on forming an official, independent investigation committee into the October 7 failures, the President of the Supreme Court will select its members in accordance with the established legal mechanism, ensuring the independence of the investigation and the breadth of its powers to examine political and security decisions and responsibilities. In return, the government proposed an alternative mechanism that politicians would participate in forming and determining the scope of its work.

The issue gains electoral importance because it relates to the responsibility of the political and security leadership for the failures that preceded the events of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent war and security and political repercussions. The continued dispute over the investigation makes the accountability issue present in Netanyahu’s confrontation with his opponents, in parallel with the issues of security, military service, and the economy.

In conjunction with the Tel Aviv protests, the Haredi recruitment crisis moved to the streets today, Sunday, after calls for dozens of demonstrators belonging to the “Jerusalem Faction” to block Highway No. 4 near the Yavneh intersection, in protest against the arrest of students from the “Or Haayim” religious institute in Rishon Lezion, due to their failure to adhere to military conscription.

The Haredi group is considered one of the most prominent extremist religious movements inside Israel. They adhere to a strict application of Jewish teachings and traditions. Many of them live in communities that have their own educational and social institutions. They are also considered exempt from many obligations within Israeli society, including military conscription.

The arrests of religious institute students do not represent a crisis separate from the political scene. The issue of Haredi recruitment has become one of the most prominent sources of disagreement within the Israeli coalition, in light of the army’s needs for soldiers and the objection to the continuation of broad exemptions from military service.

The roots of the crisis go back to decades-long arrangements that allowed sectors of Haredi men to postpone or be exempted from service due to religious studies, but the Israeli Supreme Court ruled in 2024 that blanket exemptions should not continue without a legal basis, which increased pressure on the government to regulate the recruitment of religious institute students.

The ultra-Orthodox groups insist on rejecting conscription, considering that military service conflicts with their religious lifestyle, while supporters of conscription demand a more equal distribution of service burdens, especially with the army’s needs for personnel. The dispute has led to recurring tensions between the ultra-Orthodox parties and the government over legislation, exemptions and dealing with those who refuse to join the army, according to the European Parliament Research Service.

The sensitivity of the issue for Netanyahu lies in the fact that the Haredi parties constitute an important part of his political camp, while the continued dispute over exemptions could complicate understandings within the coalition. Thus, the crisis is not related to the position of the demonstrators alone, but rather extends to the parties’ ability to reach a settlement regarding conscription and the distribution of the burdens of military service.

In addition to internal disputes, the West Bank was present in Saturday's protests, through a popular gathering that demanded an end to the violence of Israeli settlers against the Palestinians and that those responsible for the attacks be held accountable. This comes in light of mounting criticism regarding attacks during the olive harvest season, and the fears they raise for the safety of Palestinians and foreigners in the region.

In a separate development, yesterday, masked settlers attacked European diplomats and church representatives during a visit to the village of Taybeh in the occupied West Bank, according to the Associated Press. The agency reported that the attack included diplomats from Belgium, France, and Poland, while the Israeli authorities announced the opening of an investigation into the incident.

It is noteworthy that the Israeli elections are scheduled to be held amid competition between Netanyahu's camp and his opponents, amid disagreements regarding the formation of the next government and the future of political alliances. This competition places the issues of security, accountability for the October 7 events, and Haredi recruitment among files in which political positions overlap with social divisions.

According to the European Parliament Research Service, Netanyahu faces a right-wing and religious coalition against an opposition camp led by figures including former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot. The issues at hand also include judicial reform, the ongoing criminal trial of Netanyahu, and the rising costs of living and defense spending.

The pressures facing Netanyahu are not limited to protests and disagreements within his coalition, but rather extend to the ballot boxes, as opinion polls do not give him a decisive picture of his ability to form the next government. In a poll published by the Jerusalem Post newspaper on October 16, the head of the opposition Yashar Party, Gadi Eisenkot, was ahead of Netanyahu in preferences for prime minister, with 48% compared to 41% for the current prime minister, while the same poll showed that the majority of Israelis prefer to form a national unity government if the elections do not produce a decisive result, rather than going to new elections.

Between protests demanding change and holding the government accountable, and movements rejecting the recruitment of religious institute students, the Israeli scene is entering its final days before the elections, laden with disagreements that go beyond competition between parties. The most important test before the next government remains its ability to deal with these files, in light of internal divisions regarding security, religion, the state, and the responsibility of the political leadership.