U.S. Intelligence Assessments: Russia Seeks to Sow Chaos in Elections

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U.S. officials familiar with the matter have reported that the Russian government is targeting Americans with covert operations to spread disinformation online, aiming to undermine public confidence in the upcoming midterm elections scheduled for November, using familiar tactics in an attempt to sow chaos during the voting season.

The officials stated that recent secret U.S. intelligence assessments concluded that the Kremlin has authorized a renewed digital influence campaign to disseminate content via social media, hoping to stir or exacerbate internal divisions around the election season, according to a report by the New York Times on Friday.

The officials added that these assessments did not detect evidence of attempts to target voting mechanisms in a way that could threaten the integrity of the actual ballot process.

The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to discuss classified information, did not specify the nature of the efforts to influence opinions online; however, experts in Russian disinformation have observed in recent weeks campaigns on social media using artificial intelligence to create fake videos of Hollywood celebrities discussing contentious and critical election races for the Senate.

Some officials pointed out that this disinformation campaign appears to be less extensive or coordinated compared to some of Russia's previous efforts in U.S. elections.

According to previously classified assessments, the Kremlin has been conducting online influence operations in every U.S. federal election cycle since 2016.

Officials also added that U.S. intelligence sees Moscow's interest in midterm races as less than its interest in presidential elections, and that it is preoccupied with its ongoing and grueling war with Ukraine.

However, these efforts to provoke voters come at a time when President Trump has repeatedly questioned the integrity of American democracy.

In July, Trump delivered a primetime televised speech about election security, claiming there are serious vulnerabilities in U.S. voting systems, and accused American officials of being involved in a years-long "cover-up" to hide efforts by China and other parties to influence the elections.

Trump has issued directives for a task force to disclose documents that allegedly support his claims regarding widespread voter fraud and foreign interference; however, those files - which have undergone redaction and withholding of much information - did not reveal any new and significant vulnerabilities in the country's election systems, nor did they show any foreign governments manipulating votes.

Some officials mentioned that the main goal of Russian influence operations seems to be to incite chaos rather than support a specific side, although examples attributed by independent researchers specializing in monitoring media misinformation to Russia - in recent weeks - have exclusively targeted Democratic candidates in battleground states.

Neither the White House, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, nor the Russian embassy responded to requests for comment; noting that Russia has historically denied U.S. allegations of election interference.

Officials stated that some intelligence assessments indicated the possibility of Iran also engaging in influence operations coinciding with the November elections, although only a few activities linked to Tehran have been documented through covert channels.

Iran - which has been in conflict with the United States since February - had previously sought to disseminate propaganda aimed at undermining Mr. Trump's position during the 2020 and 2024 elections, and officials noted that it is reasonable to expect the regime to do so again.

Last month, Meta released a report highlighting a small network of accounts on Facebook and Instagram originating from Iran that focuses on American political affairs. Meta explained that some of the content from this network - part of which was produced using artificial intelligence - included "anti-Republican views."

U.S. intelligence findings also indicated the possibility that China is prepared to engage in influence operations targeting specific congressional races or members of Congress that Beijing considers opponents to its interests, according to officials.

Although this approach resembles China's activities in previous election seasons, U.S. intelligence assessments suggested that Beijing may ultimately choose not to take this step for fear of backlash.

In general, current and former U.S. officials believe that China is cautious to avoid exposure, while Russia and Iran appear less concerned about the possibility of their activities being revealed.

In 2016, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a multifaceted interference campaign aimed at undermining Hillary Clinton - the Democratic candidate - and boosting the chances of her Republican rival, Mr. Trump, according to U.S. intelligence agencies' conclusions.

Multiple audits of those intelligence findings - including a years-long investigation by the Republican-led Senate Intelligence Committee - have confirmed the validity of those conclusions.

Researchers in Europe and the United States - who track Russian disinformation campaigns - have observed recent signs of Russian activity; during two separate waves last week, a network previously linked to Kremlin-affiliated troll armies published a series of videos on the platforms "X" and "Bluesky."

These videos appeared to rely on artificial intelligence to promote baseless claims against Democratic Senate candidates engaged in tight electoral races.

The platform "MS NOW" had previously reported on some aspects of this campaign. These posts attacked the candidates using themes that Mr. Trump and the Republican Party have consistently used to undermine Democrats, including accusations of corruption, anti-Semitism, and support for LGBTQ+ rights and transgender issues.

The posts included false or unverified claims in videos designed to look as if they were produced by prominent news organizations, such as CNN, the BBC, and The New York Times.

Among the targeted figures is Senator Jon Ossoff, who is running for re-election in Georgia, along with other candidates who have a chance to give Democrats a majority in the Senate, including: Sherrod Brown (Ohio), Roy Cooper (North Carolina), Troy Jackson (Maine), Chris Pappas (New Hampshire), Mary Peltola (Alaska), Abdul Sayed (Michigan), James Talarico (Texas), and Joshua Torric (Iowa).

Graphika, a company specializing in threat analysis, attributed this intensive campaign to an operation linked to the Kremlin, referred to by experts as "Operation Overload" or "Matryoshka," which often impersonates real news organizations to spread fabricated content.

In one example, a post that appeared on Thursday mimicked a video from The New York Times showing an image of actress Jamie Lee Curtis with a caption criticizing Democrats for their policies regarding transgender issues.

Heidi Schaffer, a spokesperson for the actress, said in a press interview: "There is not a shred of truth in that."

By the end of the day, the post had garnered nearly 200,000 views, according to statistics from the platform "X." The platform, which did not respond to a request for comment, removed some posts that appeared earlier in the week, but many of them are still available online.

These posts used familiar Russian tactics that have appeared in previous elections in the United States and Europe.

Jean Le Roux, a senior researcher at Graphika, noted that content aimed at the United States emerged shortly after the elections in Germany and Sweden concluded.

Commenting on the Russian efforts, he said: "We definitely expect the pace of these activities to escalate. I don't think they will stop; rather, I see that we are witnessing the initial launch of campaigns focused on the U.S. elections."