Ukraine after the decline in US support: Can Europe fill the gap?

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The Russian-Ukrainian war has raised questions about Europe's ability to continue supporting Kiev in the event of a decline in American support, especially in the areas of intelligence, satellites, and military communications. These capabilities help Ukrainian forces monitor Russian movements, identify targets, follow field developments, and coordinate military operations.

European countries have important technical and military capabilities, but they still depend on the United States in some advanced areas. Therefore, compensating for American support is partially possible, but it requires large investments and long-term European coordination.

Countries such as France, Germany and Italy have satellites and advanced capabilities in Earth observation and information gathering. Europe can also benefit from commercial companies that provide satellite images to monitor military movements and assess damage.

But the challenge is not just about providing images, but about being able to collect information from multiple sources, analyze it quickly, and provide it to Ukrainian forces in a timely manner. The United States has superiority in some areas, especially early warning of ballistic missiles, continuous reconnaissance, and intelligence data fusion.

Closing these gaps requires long-term investments and broader cooperation between European countries, which makes full compensation difficult in the near term.

The American "Starlink" services are considered one of the most important communications tools used by Ukraine, allowing communication to continue between military units and command centers, even in areas where traditional communications networks have been damaged.

In contrast, Europe is developing alternatives, including Eutelsat's OneWeb network, as well as the IRIS² secure satellite communications project, which aims to pool available European government capabilities.

These initiatives can reduce dependence on American services, but they do not yet provide a ready alternative that matches Starlink in terms of network size, coverage, speed of deployment, and integration with military uses. Also, some European projects are still in the development stage.

Europe is also seeking to strengthen its digital independence by developing secure cloud services and protecting data from cyber attacks. These services help store, analyze, and exchange intelligence information between organizations.

But having an advanced digital infrastructure does not compensate for the absence of the same sources of information, such as satellites and early warning systems. Therefore, reducing dependence on Washington requires developing an integrated system that includes collecting, processing, and securing its transfer of information.

Europe can increase its support for Ukraine by expanding information sharing, investing in satellite communications, developing early warning systems and strengthening cybersecurity. However, distributing capabilities among multiple countries and institutions poses challenges related to coordination, financing, and speed of decision-making.

But Europe cannot currently compensate for all American capabilities immediately and completely. The most realistic option will remain to gradually reduce dependence on Washington, while sharing burdens between the two parties and developing European capabilities in the long term.