$6 billion to Iran in exchange for Israeli concessions... A report reveals the behind-the-scenes understandings between Washington and Tehran and the possibility of a return to war

Tel Aviv - Ofoq News - Media reports spoke of possible preliminary understandings between the United States and Iran to return to negotiations, including the release of $6 billion of Iranian funds frozen in Qatari banks, at a time when no independent official confirmation of this information has been issued.

This news comes amid mounting speculation about the possibility of resuming the military confrontation with Iran, following discussions held by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, and in light of fears that miscalculation between the parties would lead to a widespread regional escalation.

According to a report by the Hebrew newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, the American moves may be accompanied by pressure on Israel to make concessions in regional files, including the Gaza Strip, Lebanon and Syria, in addition to political arrangements related to the next Israeli government.

Preliminary understandings mediated by Qatar

The reports, based on what was reported by Qatari sources, said that Washington and Tehran had reached preliminary understandings regarding the resumption of negotiations, which include working to prevent renewed military escalation and releasing $6 billion of Iranian funds held in Qatari banks.

This news coincided with the arrival of Pakistani Army Commander Asim Munir to Iran, as part of the mediation movements between Washington and Tehran since the ceasefire that followed the recent military confrontation.

However, the report indicated that similar news had appeared previously without turning into tangible progress, leaving the fate of potential understandings unresolved.

On the other hand, the Iranian Tasnim news agency quoted a senior security official as saying that the lack of clarity regarding the mechanism for making final decisions within the US administration represents one of the obstacles to the negotiations. The official pointed to ambiguity regarding the roles and powers assigned to Vice President J.D. Vance, US envoy Steve Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Jared Kushner.

Will war return after the US midterm elections?

According to Yedioth Ahronoth, Netanyahu and Hegseth discussed, during a meeting that lasted about two hours, the possibilities of resuming the war on Iran. The meeting was held at Ovda Air Base, with the participation of Israeli Security Minister Yisrael Katz, National Security Council Chairman Shamoul Ben Ezra, and Netanyahu's Military Secretary Guy Markezano, along with Emirati representatives.

The report pointed out the absence of Mossad chief Roman Goffman and Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir from the meeting.

The report quoted an Israeli official as estimating that the probability of launching an attack on Iran before the Israeli elections is 30%, compared to the possibility of it not occurring at 70%, with the possibility of these estimates changing after the US midterm elections scheduled for November 3.

According to the report, the period between the US elections and the convening of the new Congress on January 3 may constitute a potential window for military action, especially if the Republican Party loses its majority in one or both chambers of Congress.

But the report indicated that the Israeli state of alert is not only related to the possibility of launching a new attack on Iran, but also includes fears that Israel will be exposed to a sudden Iranian attack from multiple fronts.

Possible concessions in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria

The report believes that the public support provided by US President Donald Trump to Netanyahu, in addition to Hegseth's visit, may come within broader American calculations, which include seeking Israeli flexibility in regional issues in exchange for Washington's support for action against Iran.

According to estimates quoted in the report from diplomatic and Israeli sources, the US administration may press towards forming an Israeli unity government that includes Netanyahu and former minister Gadi Eisenkot, without parties that Washington classifies as extremist, thus creating the conditions for expanding the Abraham Accords after the end of the confrontation with Iran.

Possible concessions, according to the report, include

Gaza Strip: Allowing the start of reconstruction before completing the disarmament of Hamas, within arrangements that may include Emirati participation.

Lebanon: Show flexibility toward a possible peace agreement, even if Hezbollah is not completely disarmed.

Syria: Withdrawal from some areas controlled by Israel.

The next government: pushing towards forming a unity government and excluding forces that Washington classifies as extremist.

Fears of miscalculation and the expansion of the confrontation

The report warned that the escalation of talk about the possibility of resuming the war, coinciding with the approaching Israeli elections, may increase the risk of miscalculation between the parties.

Tehran may interpret Israeli movements as an indication that an attack is imminent, which may prompt it to carry out a pre-emptive strike, which could turn the state of alert into a rapid exchange of attacks and open the door to a broader confrontation.

The report indicated that Israel is considering, according to previously circulated information, targeting Iranian facilities and infrastructure, including energy facilities, with the aim of increasing pressure on the authorities in Tehran. But he quoted an Israeli official as doubting the possibility of ensuring that a new military tour would lead to the overthrow of the Iranian regime.

The report also addressed the potential cost of any new war on the Israeli home front, including material damage, reconstruction needs, and the possibility of more casualties, at a time when all the damage resulting from previous confrontations has not been addressed.

The Israeli elections are in the calculations

According to the report, Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir informed the American side that resuming the war before October 27 could lead to the postponement of the Israeli elections scheduled for that date.

On the other hand, parties in the Israeli opposition expressed doubts about the timing of talk about resuming the war, considering that security developments may interfere with electoral calculations.

The report concludes that any new Iranian attack may affect the Israeli political scene, whether by changing the date of the elections or affecting the chances of forming the next government. It may also give Trump an additional justification to push for the formation of a national unity government.

In the absence of official confirmation regarding the release of Iranian funds or reaching a final agreement between Washington and Tehran, the possibilities of calm or a return to confrontation remain open, while potential Israeli concessions remain part of scenarios and estimates that have not turned into announced decisions.