An Iranian agency questions the feasibility of Assem Munir's mediation and bets on Tehran's extremism

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Fars News Agency, which is close to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, doubted the feasibility of the visit of Pakistani Army Commander Field Marshal Asim Munir to Tehran on October 20, unless it led to tangible American concessions.

The agency linked the visit to oil price fluctuations, in a narrative that prioritizes continued pressure on Washington rather than presenting diplomatic moves as a breakthrough.

In its first report, entitled “Oil Decline... Achievement of the Mediator’s Visit to Tehran,” Fares said that Brent crude fell by more than $6 to about $105 per barrel, and linked the decline to Mounir’s visit.

It was based on estimates attributed to analysts at Bloomberg, according to which oil reaching $110 represents a major pressure point on the American economy, prompting Washington to make efforts to reduce prices.

But the agency’s tone changed in a second report entitled “The Firm Position of Mohsen Rezaei and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf Turned the Course of Oil,” as it attributed the return of prices to about $110 to the positions of the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, and the Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf.

Then it published a third report entitled “The oil jump negated the effect of Asim Mounir’s visit,” which focused on the risks of supplies and the disruption of the movement of oil tankers in the Arabian Gulf, especially the Strait of Hormuz.

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Reuters data shows that Brent reached $111.99 a barrel during trading on Tuesday, before closing at $108.79, then returning to exceeding $110 on Wednesday.

International coverage attributed market movements to a group of factors, including hopes for calm, navigation risks, and fears of supply disruption and changing stocks, and not to the mediation of Asem Munir or the statements of Iranian officials alone.

Therefore, the statement that Mounir's visit reduced prices and then nullified the positions of Rezaei and Qalibaf, its effect is not proven by market movement alone.

But Fares's sequence of headlines reveals a clear political message: The temporary decline in oil prices should not be considered a mediation success if it is not matched by a tangible change in the American position.

This message reflects a reservation that mediation would give Washington an economic and psychological outlet without charge.

According to this hard-line Iranian logic, Mounir’s success is not measured by simply opening a channel of communication or reducing tension, but rather by his ability to push the United States to change its conditions, including the restrictions imposed on Iranian oil exports and ports.

Highlighting Rezaei and Qalibaf's statements is also an attempt to place the center of gravity in Tehran, not in the efforts of the mediator.

The agency presents the positions of Iranian officials as evidence that Tehran is still clinging to pressure cards, and that the calm will not be automatic or free.

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This reading comes at a time when the possibilities of resuming the war still exist. On October 20, Reuters quoted Iranian officials as saying that Tehran expects the possibility of renewed American and Israeli attacks, and that it does not trust that negotiations alone will end the conflict.

On the other hand, US President Donald Trump announced on October 8 that the United States would not resume its strikes on Iran before the midterm elections scheduled for November 3, based on what he described as fruitful talks.

This declaration sets a time limit to refrain from strikes, but it does not constitute a guarantee that the escalation will not be renewed after that.

As for Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu escalated his tone on October 20, declaring that his goal was to overthrow the Iranian regime, and indicating that he had discussed this with Trump.

According to Reuters, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with Netanyahu during an unannounced visit to Israel, and the two sides discussed regional threats and US-Israeli cooperation in dealing with them defensively and offensively.

These developments indicate the continuation of security and military coordination between the two countries, despite talk of mediation efforts.

In sum, Fares does not explicitly reject Pakistani mediation, but she questions its value if its results are limited to calming the markets without American concessions.

Oil fluctuations are used to confirm that Tehran's toughness, not just the arrival of mediators, is the element that should determine the course of the negotiation.

In light of Netanyahu's statements regarding the overthrow of the Iranian regime, Iranian reservations about Washington's intentions, and the continuation of American-Israeli military coordination, the chances of a settlement remain dependent on whether the mediation will produce practical changes in the conditions of the two parties, not merely by a decline or rise in oil prices.