Analysis: What do Israel’s decisive elections and expected preliminary results reveal?

Analysis by colleague Tal Shalev of the Ofoq News Network - Opinion polls at the exit from the polls, on Tuesday evening, showed that there is no clear winner in the Israeli elections; Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, were able to reach the threshold of 61 seats necessary to form a ruling majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The three main Israeli television channels (11, 12, and 13) expected Netanyahu's camp to obtain between 51 and 52 seats, which is a sharp decline compared to the coalition he was leading in the outgoing Knesset, which reached 68 seats.

However, expectations indicate that Netanyahu's Likud party will remain the largest party, obtaining between 25 and 27 seats. But Israeli politics depends, at its core, on building coalitions - not on the party being the largest - and Netanyahu's path to remaining in power is now unclear.

The opposition camp also faces a complicated path towards forming a government. The parties opposing Netanyahu obtained a clear majority of votes, according to opinion polls, winning between 68 and 70 seats.

But this camp suffers from fragmentation and division between the right, left and center movements, as well as between the Jewish parties and the Arab parties. The Yeshar Party, led by Eisenkot, is the largest opposition party, with expectations indicating that it will obtain between 21 and 23 seats. However, his accession to power requires cooperation with Arab parties, a scenario that not all opposition party leaders are willing to accept.

On the other hand, a different indicator emerged that brought good news for Netanyahu and his camp. Opinion polls conducted by Channel 14 - loyal to Netanyahu - expected his camp to obtain 60 seats, with expectations that the Likud Party alone would obtain 30 seats. However, since exit polls remain estimates, the landscape may change as the actual votes are counted overnight.

The final sorting process is expected to take a few days. No quick announcements of victory With exit polls showing that neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot received a majority, the two leaders addressed their supporters, in an attempt to impose their dominance on the scene and craft a narrative declaring their victory.

In a speech he delivered at the Likud Party headquarters in Jerusalem, Netanyahu thanked voters for what he described as “renewed confidence,” but he refrained from declaring a decisive victory. He said: “Two things became clear tonight: Likud is the largest party in Israel, and there is no doubt about that.

The second thing is that the right-wing camp has a clear and decisive majority among the Zionist and Jewish public.” Netanyahu added: “We must form a strong national right-wing government.

Israel should not be exposed to danger through a government that relies on anti-Zionist Arab parties, rejects our very existence, considers Hamas a charitable organization, and describes our soldiers as war criminals.” For his part, Eisenkot also did not announce his victory during a speech he delivered at his campaign headquarters in Tel Aviv, but he confirmed that Israel voted against Netanyahu.

The public voted for change, and the 'coalition of failure' lost the trust of the people. The Israeli public voted against Netanyahu continuing his position as Prime Minister of Israel.”

Eisenkot - who previously served as Chief of the General Staff of the Israeli Army and lost a son during the fighting in Gaza - noted that "a responsible leader would have accepted the people's decision to withdraw confidence from him, and today announced his withdrawal from political life." The rise of Arab parties complicates the scene. The elections witnessed the highest overall voter turnout since 1999, reaching at least 77.7%.

This rise has been particularly noted among the country's Arab population, whose voting rates have historically been lower than those of Jewish Israelis. The Arab parties reported that the participation rate exceeded 75%, and it is expected that the two lists - the “Joint List” and the “Unified Arab List” (Ra’am) - will obtain between 17 and 19 seats, which is their strongest performance in history.

Palestinian citizens of Israel - who make up about 20% of the total population - have been driven by a burning desire to oust Netanyahu's right-wing coalition, which is largely dominated by hard-line ministers such as Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir. Ben Gvir's tenure as Minister of National Security witnessed a sharp rise in crime and homicide rates within Arab societies.

Youssef Jabareen, head of the Joint List, said, describing this day as historic: “We have proven that we are a political force that cannot be ignored, and that it is impossible to build a future here without our voice.” For his part, Mansour Abbas, head of the United Arab List (Ra'am), told i24news that "this record electoral achievement is entirely due to Ben Gvir, Smotrich, and the entire government, which neglected the Arab community in Israel."

Although Arab participation may have prevented Netanyahu from obtaining a majority, at the same time it increases the complexity of Eisenkot's efforts to oust him. Eisenkot set conditions for any partner wishing to join his government, including recognizing Israel as a Jewish state, and considering the Hamas movement a terrorist organization that must be dismantled. These are conditions that most Arab legislators are unlikely to accept.

Moreover, two of his allies in the opposition - Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett - have categorically ruled out forming a government that includes Arab parties. This makes Eisenkot's path to victory unclear.

Exit polls are only preliminary estimates, and the picture may change as actual votes are counted and final results are announced, a process that usually takes a few days. Once the results are officially certified, the electoral process moves to the arena of Israeli President Isaac Herzog.

Through a series of meetings in Jerusalem, Herzog will conduct a round of consultations, during which each elected party will recommend its preferred candidate for prime minister. Based on these recommendations, the president assigns one of the candidates to try to form a government.

This candidate does not have to be the leader of the largest party, but rather the person whom the president, in his own judgment, deems most capable of mustering a parliamentary majority of 61 seats. Winning depends not only on the number of votes and seats, but also on the ability to build and maintain a viable coalition.

Herzog's first decision will be to determine who he will assign to form the government: Netanyahu or Eisenkot? It is true that Netanyahu leads the largest party, but with the support of the Arab parties, Eisenkot may receive a greater number of recommendations.

Once in charge, the chosen candidate will begin weeks of political haggling over cabinet positions, budget priorities, and policy commitments. The designated candidate is given 28 days - with the possibility of extending it for an additional 14 days - to form the government.

If he fails to do so, the president transfers the assignment to another candidate for an additional four weeks. If this candidate also fails, the Knesset is given a short period to nominate another candidate; If this is not possible, the country will automatically head towards a new election round.

In the absence of a clear majority for either party, a deadlock seems likely. Herzog may try to push Netanyahu and Eisenkot toward forming a national unity government that includes the two largest parties, but it is unclear whether such an arrangement is possible at all; Netanyahu has a long history of letting down politicians with whom he has concluded similar agreements, and Eisenkot has completely ruled out the idea of ​​sitting in one government with Netanyahu.