Brazil Between Lula and Bolsonaro.. Elections Under the Shadow of Washington

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Brazilians began voting on Sunday in a highly polarized presidential election between leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his conservative rival Flávio Bolsonaro, in a battle that not only determines the future of the largest economy in Latin America but also tests the extent of the political shift to the right in the region.

While around 159 million voters compete to choose the president, members of Congress, and state governors, the presence of U.S. President Donald Trump looms over the race, as Brazil has become one of the main battlegrounds between Washington and Lula's government in recent months, amid accusations of U.S. interference and an escalating trade and political dispute.

Lula, 80 years old, enters the election seeking a fourth non-consecutive presidential term, while Flávio Bolsonaro, 45 years old, is running in his first presidential race after his name rose to prominence in the Brazilian right following the imprisonment of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Pre-election polls indicate a narrow lead for Lula in the first round, but the gap does not seem sufficient to secure the race in the first round, while second-round polls show a very close competition between the two men. Recent data from Datafolha and others indicate that neither appears close to surpassing the 50% threshold required to win in the first round, making a runoff on October 25 the most likely scenario, according to Reuters.

A few years ago, Flavio Bolsonaro was not the candidate who could compete for the presidency of Brazil, but his position has changed significantly with the political and judicial downfall of his father.

Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for being convicted of plotting a coup attempt after losing the 2022 elections to Lula, while his son is running the race based on a right-wing electoral base that still remains loyal to the family. Flavio has made the pardon of his father and the restoration of his political status part of his campaign.

Although Trump has not officially announced support for Flavio according to a report by the French Press Agency in the original article, his influence has remained strong in the race, especially after Washington entered into a confrontation with Lula's government over the trial of Jair Bolsonaro.

It is worth noting that the Trump administration imposed tariffs and sanctions on Brazil, while Brazilian officials accused the U.S. administration of trying to influence institutions and elections. The Guardian revealed that U.S. funds were directed to anti-left groups and causes, including a $1 million grant for a campaign targeting the Brazilian Supreme Court, which prompted the Brazilian Attorney General to request an investigation into the suspicion of foreign interference.

On the other hand, the importance of the elections extends beyond Brazil itself, as they come at a time when right-wing and conservative forces have made gains in several Latin American countries, partly driven by issues of crime, immigration, the economy, and concerns about rising living costs.

Washington is closely following the race, as Flavio's victory would mean a closer ally to Trump becoming the president of the largest country in Latin America, while Lula's continued presence would maintain one of the most prominent leftist voices in the region against U.S. policy towards the continent. The Guardian describes the elections as a test for the growing bloc of right-wing governments allied with Trump in Latin America.

However, Brazilian voters do not necessarily vote solely based on geopolitical calculations. Crime, cost of living, government spending, and public debt have become critical issues in determining voting trends.

Lula relies on an economic and social performance that includes a historic drop in unemployment and his record in reducing poverty during his previous two terms, in addition to a decrease in deforestation rates in the Amazon compared to the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro. In contrast, Flavio focuses on security, reducing public spending, and addressing debt, issues that resonate with segments of conservative voters.

The environment is no less important than the economy and security in this election, as the return of the right or the continuation of Lula is seen as a significant factor in Brazil's policy towards the Amazon.

During Lula's current term, deforestation in the Amazon has significantly decreased compared to the last years of Bolsonaro's rule, a matter that has enhanced Brazil's image abroad as a key player in combating climate change. Therefore, the election results may have implications that extend beyond Brazil's borders to climate policies, forest protection, and the country's relations with major economic powers, according to The Guardian.

Despite the sharp polarization, it seems that not all voters have made their choices based on loyalty. The campaign has witnessed a state of political fatigue among sectors of Brazilians, especially with the return of the Bolsonaro family name to the forefront after years of division that followed the 2022 elections.

Detailed programs were largely absent from the campaign in favor of personal attacks and mutual accusations, while corruption scandals and economic fears remained present in the electoral debate. Pre-election polls show that the competition is still open, with a limited advantage for Lula and no strong third candidate capable of breaking the polarization between the two camps.

Thus, the Brazilian elections do not seem to be merely a confrontation between Lula and Bolsonaro Jr., but a test of competing paths in Latin America: one path seeks to maintain greater independence from Washington, while the other is more willing to align with the Trump administration.

In either case, the outcome will have implications that extend beyond the presidential palace in Brasília, affecting Brazil's position within Latin America, its relationship with Washington and Beijing, and the future of the right and left in the region.