Fly Dubai Incident Enters the Knesset Race.. How Does It Affect Netanyahu?

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Weeks before the Israeli elections, the "Fly Dubai" plane incident added a new security file to an electoral race that is already focused on the question of the government's ability to protect Israelis. While Benjamin Netanyahu rushed to highlight the incident in his security speech, the opposition saw it as a new opportunity to question the government's readiness.

The incident, which occurred on September 30 on board the "Fly Dubai" flight from Dubai to Tel Aviv, after the co-pilot attacked the captain and attempted to take control of the plane, ended with an emergency landing in the Saudi city of "Tabuk" without injuries to the passengers, after the pilot and passengers managed to thwart the attempt.

While investigations are still looking into the motives of the attacker and any potential connections, Netanyahu found in the incident additional electoral material to enhance his image as the responsible leader capable of facing security threats, at a time when Israel is heading towards Knesset elections on October 27.

Netanyahu did not delay in commenting on the incident, praising the role of the passengers and pilots in preventing a disaster, while the incident quickly became a focal point for Israeli political debate.

Allies of the government considered that the incident reinforces the previous warnings of the Prime Minister about the possibility of attacks before the elections, while the opposition viewed the handling of the situation as bringing back to the forefront the question of security failures and the role of civilians in preventing the disaster.

The incident gained greater electoral significance as it came just one day after Netanyahu warned of the possibility of Israel facing attacks before the vote, a warning that prompted opposition leader Yair Lapid to request a security briefing.

However, Lapid later stated that the briefing did not include any threats resembling the plane incident or related to a plane in particular, which opened a political confrontation over whether Netanyahu actually had specific information before the incident, according to what was reported by the "Times of Israel."

For his part, Dr. Mohamed Aboud, a professor of Israeli studies at Ain Shams University in Egypt, stated in remarks to "Al Arabiya.net/ Al Hadath.net" that Netanyahu treated the incident from the very first moment as an electoral opportunity, considering that he tried to control the media narrative in Israel and present himself as someone who is monitoring the crisis and protecting Israelis.

He also explained that the Prime Minister attempted to exploit the incident to formulate a security narrative that transcends the Israeli interior, by re-presenting Israelis as victims of external threats, at a time when Tel Aviv is facing widespread international criticism and isolation due to the Gaza war.

The professor of Israeli studies pointed out that this employment has extended, according to his estimation, to the electronic space, where the Likud party used AI-generated video clips presenting Netanyahu as the "heroic savior," while portraying his opponents as a threat to the state's security.

In contrast, Dr. Jihad Al-Harazin, the Palestinian academic, writer, and political analyst, stated in his remarks to "Al Arabiya/ Al Hadath" that the incident has implications for the Israeli arena, especially with the upcoming Knesset elections, but he places it within a broader pattern of discourse that Netanyahu has used for years to convince voters that Israel faces a constant danger and that he is the most capable of confronting it.

Al-Harazin also clarified that the Israeli opposition views the matter from a different angle, as they believe that Netanyahu's government policies have contributed to creating a state of hostility towards Israel and harming its international standing, which, from their perspective, has reflected on the level of risks faced by Israelis.

The opposition did not limit itself to criticizing the political employment of the incident, but some Israeli voices linked the event to the events of October 7, 2023, when civilians and local forces found themselves facing the attack before the government’s security response was fully deployed.

In the "Fly Dubai" incident, government critics also focused on the fact that it was the passengers who intervened to stop the attacker, while Netanyahu attempted to leverage the heroism of these passengers to bolster his security narrative. This debate was clearly evident in the Israeli media's coverage of the incident and its electoral implications, according to what was reported by the "Times of Israel."

In this context, Aboud believes that Netanyahu can, at best for his camp, maintain his position within Likud and fortify his list against internal competitors, but he does not yet have a guarantee to form a government that enjoys a majority of 61 seats in the Knesset.

Meanwhile, the fundamental problem in the electoral calculations is the absence of a clear majority for either camp, which opens the door to complex alliances or the continuation of political stalemate if neither side can gather the necessary votes to form a government.

For his part, Al-Harazin considered that the incident could give the right a temporary boost because it has brought security and external threats back to the forefront of the discussion, but it does not necessarily mean a shift in the position of the Israeli voter, especially since the internal division over Netanyahu and his government still exists.

Aboud pointed out that Netanyahu seeks to turn the incident into part of a larger battle over the 'security narrative,' so that the most prominent and important question for the Israeli voter becomes not only: who governs? but also: who can protect Tel Aviv against upcoming dangers?

However, so far, there are no reliable indicators to suggest that the 'Fly Dubai' incident has caused a significant shift in voting trends.

Recent polls prior to the incident showed a close competition; the latest averages from "Reuters" indicated that the centrist "Yesh Atid" party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, had a slight lead over Likud, while forming a clear government coalition remained challenging for either camp.

The news agency also noted that Netanyahu was once again relying on his image as "Israel's protector" during his election campaign, despite the fact that the October 7 attack weakened this image and opened a wide discussion about his political and security responsibility.

Between the government's narrative, which framed the incident as a new security threat, and the opposition's narrative, which used it to question the state's readiness, the "Fly Dubai" incident seems poised to remain within the Israeli electoral debate, but the actual impact on the ballot boxes will only become clear with subsequent polls measuring whether voters have indeed changed their positions.