Hardliners in Iran read Trump's weak position... and this is what they seek

Iranian hardliners - who believe that Tehran has already emerged victorious in its war with the United States - are exploiting the losses suffered by US President Donald Trump in the midterm elections to demand that he pay a heavy price in exchange for ending the conflict. The price is the establishment of a “new world order” that is in Tehran’s interest. This influential group of conservatives has intensified its rhetoric this week, publicly demanding that no concessions be made to Washington during the ongoing negotiations.

Following the major defeat suffered by the Republican Party led by Trump in the midterm elections, the Supreme Leader warned - in a message on Wednesday - against showing “the slightest inclination towards submission.” It is a warning that hardliners believe was directed to Iranian negotiators. In an interview with the American Fox News network, Trump acknowledged that the war with Iran was a partial cause of Republican losses, while his vice president, J.D. Vance, was more frank. He wrote in a lengthy post on the X platform (formerly Twitter), on Wednesday: “The reason we lost is the war.”

These confessions seem to have given Iranian hardliners a strong boost. Conservative politicians and Iranian media celebrated Trump's loss, considering it a victory for Iran. In this context, the “Raja News” website - a hardline media platform - published an article in which it believes that the United States should not be given a “way out” before it “pays the price” for its aggression against Iran, stressing the need for Trump not to be allowed to “get away with a hasty agreement.”

The author of the article wrote on Wednesday: “The achievements of the Iranian people and the gains achieved should not be squandered by providing a way out for the other party. The only way to avoid the specter of war is to consolidate power, increase pressure on the United States - including pressure through energy prices - and make the enemy regret his actions.”

Risks of Escalation Eight months after the start of the conflict, the war has reached a stalemate, with a decline in military operations and the absence of any tangible diplomatic progress. In the past few weeks, Iranian negotiators moved between Tehran and Doha, while Qatari mediators sought to bring the views of the two parties closer together, hoping to reach an agreement that would pave the way for negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program and end the war.

In a statement to the Ofoq News network, Hamid Reza Azizi, a senior expert on Iranian affairs at the International Crisis Group, said: “The Iranian leadership sees the results of the recent elections as confirmation of the validity of its strategy against the United States. As a result, Tehran’s position is likely to become more stringent regarding the conditions for reaching an agreement with Washington.”

Azizi added that Trump's declaration of "mission accomplished" and ending the war with Iran seems unrealistic, unless the American president obtains concessions from Tehran regarding its nuclear program, which may help him contain any negative internal reaction. The other option available to him is to launch a large-scale military operation, so that he can claim that he ended the war from a position of strength.

Azizi explained, “The problem is that the Iranians, in light of the results of the recent elections, do not see any justification for making nuclear concessions to Trump. They are also expected to adhere - with greater determination than before - to their demand that the United States take the first step before any agreement can be concluded.”

In a related context, a regional official told the Ofoq News Network on Thursday that the risk of renewed war with Iran has decreased following the defeat of the Republican Party in the US midterm elections, but the possibility of escalation still exists. Trump said in October that the United States would not attack Iran before the midterm elections, but he did not rule out or confirm whether the strikes would resume afterward. This kept the people of the Middle East in a state of anxiety and anticipation, especially with Iran threatening to expand the scope of its strikes in response to any escalation.

Trump told reporters on Thursday: “Now we're making a decision: Do we want to move forward? I'd rather not destroy the rest of the country if possible, but maybe I'll have to.”

The Middle East has witnessed an intensification of diplomatic movements since the midterm elections were held on Tuesday, as Qatar reported on Friday that President Trump had called the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, to discuss reducing the escalation. The Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, had held talks a day earlier with his counterparts from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the Sultanate of Oman, Pakistan, Kuwait, Jordan, Turkey, Cyprus, and Qatar. Although hardliners in Iran publicly welcome more conflict, experts believe that the Iranian leadership is seeking to reach an agreement with the United States that would end the war, while allowing Tehran to gain new regional influence.

In a statement to the Ufok News Network, non-resident researcher at the Center for International Policy, Sina Tosi, said: “This means coming out with stronger deterrent capabilities, lasting influence, and a regional system in which Washington and Israel cannot keep Iran isolated, under constant pressure, or vulnerable to attack without incurring costs that may be very high.” Iran has demanded that Washington meet seven conditions before Tehran opens the Strait of Hormuz. It includes ending the war “on all fronts,” providing reparations, withdrawing US forces, and lifting sanctions.

It remains unclear whether the United States will accept these demands. The war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran resulted in the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, his senior commanders, nuclear scientists, and hundreds of civilians, in addition to the destruction of vital military sites.

The conflict also caused huge economic losses to the Islamic Republic, bringing decades of “shadow war” into the open. As the conflict reached a stalemate, the United States imposed a naval blockade on Iran and reimposed sanctions, further deteriorating the economy and doubling the pressure on ordinary Iranians.

“Iran’s economy and infrastructure have suffered enormously, and continuing the confrontation carries grave risks,” Tosi adds. “But this is precisely why Iranian leaders are reluctant to give up their remaining leverage without receiving lasting gains in return.”

Internally, the war has deepened divisions between hardliners - who seek to continue the conflict with the United States - and moderates who believe that diplomacy and openness to the world may relieve economic pressure on Iran. Despite internal disagreements, the Iranian leadership has remained relatively united in its approach to the United States, focusing on short-term tactics aimed at raising the cost of the conflict at the global level; This is done by targeting regional oil facilities and disrupting shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor through which about a fifth of the world’s daily oil production passed before the outbreak of war.

However, Iran seeks to achieve greater gains through its long-term strategy, as it aspires to emerge from this war with greater influence and regional power than it had before. Tusi said: “Tehran wants its neighbors to realize that their security cannot depend exclusively on American military power, and that any sustainable regional arrangement must take Iranian interests into account,” adding: “It seeks a settlement that changes the strategic balance in its favor, and at the same time restricts Washington’s ability to isolate Iran, exert pressure on it, or attack it whenever it wants.”

In his message, Mojtaba Khamenei noted that the war had heralded “a bright dawn full of hope” and was laying “the foundation for a new world order.” This reveals the nature of the gain that Iran hopes to achieve in the end from this conflict. However, this great ambition is now clashing with an American president who may be determined to prove his presence on the international scene, at a time when he faces increasing restrictions at home following his electoral defeat.