Hormuz Strait 'Chokes'.. Sharp Decline in Transit Movement Amid Escalation Fears

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Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has sharply declined at the beginning of the week, amid ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran and rising fears of renewed military operations between the two sides, casting a shadow over shipping through one of the most important waterways for global energy trade.

Shipping data showed on Monday that 12 vessels loaded with goods crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday and Sunday, compared to 35 vessels at the beginning of the previous week, according to preliminary data reported by "Reuters."

The figures do not include some ships that may have crossed the strait after turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders to avoid detection.

This decline comes at a time when the confrontation between Washington and Tehran remains stagnant, coinciding with escalating mutual threats and attacks in the region, increasing uncertainty for shipping companies regarding the safety of transit through the strait.

While the U.S. military continues to tighten its naval blockade on Iran, U.S. Central Command "CENTCOM" announced that as of September 20, its forces had directed the course of 109 commercial ships, as part of measures it said aimed at ensuring "full compliance with the blockade" imposed on Tehran.

An American sailor stands watch on board the USS John Paul Jones destroyer. As of September 20, U.S. Central Command #CENTCOM has directed the course of 109 commercial ships to ensure full compliance with the blockade. pic.twitter.com/MCyLLYY6Y3

The new decline in maritime traffic coincided with a military and political escalation between Washington and Tehran, as the Iranian military announced on Sunday evening the downing of an "Orbiter" reconnaissance drone over the Strait of Hormuz, stating that Iranian air defense systems hit and destroyed it at 18:30 local time in the southeastern region of the country, according to the Iranian news agency "IRNA."

Earlier, the unified combat command of Iranian forces stated that Tehran had received information indicating that the United States was preparing to resume combat operations, warning that any American attack would be met with "continuous strikes on American bases and interests."

In contrast, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that "something big may happen very soon regarding Iran," indicating that the options on the table include "wiping out Iran," or allowing it to "rot economically," or reaching a "deal and agreement."

Trump also issued new warnings to Iranian authorities, speaking about the possibility of "blowing up all of Iran," and demanding that Iranian officials "act properly," according to his statements.

It is worth noting that the current level of decline seems significant compared to the levels of maritime traffic before the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran on February 28, as the strait was witnessing an average of about 125 large commercial ships crossing daily before the war, including oil and gas tankers, bulk cargo ships, and container ships, with the corridor transporting about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies.

While some ships are trying to use alternative routes near the Omani coasts to reduce risks, Iran continues to emphasize that maritime traffic must occur through the routes it specifies.

Tehran had previously established an authority to manage traffic in the strait and threatened to take action against ships it said were violating Iranian crossing rules, including fines, detention, and seizure of shipments.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a major chokepoint for global energy trade, while the ongoing tensions have kept shipping and oil and gas flows at levels much lower than usual.