Houthi Attack, Saudi Capability, and the Lack of Direct U.S. Intervention: What You Need to Know

- The significant recent field advances made by the Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen - including the seizure of a strategically important island in the Red Sea - dealt another blow to a region already suffering from the repercussions of tensions between the United States and Iran, and exacerbated the already severe global energy crisis. Although U.S. officials acknowledge that the group is advancing with the aim of ultimately controlling the vital Bab al-Mandab Strait, the Trump administration indicates its reluctance to use U.S. military force to stop them, instead relying on Saudi Arabia to carry out this mission.

The movements of the Houthis were not surprising to sources in the region or to former diplomats, as the vulnerabilities of the Saudi-backed Yemeni forces were well known. U.S. officials stated that U.S. intelligence reports had indicated for months that the group would attempt to close another key waterway for commercial navigation, similar to what Iran did earlier this year.

However, the United States believes it is currently providing Saudi Arabia with everything it needs to succeed in facing the Houthis, according to a U.S. official who spoke to Afaq News, pointing to the recent increase in intelligence sharing and target identification data with the Kingdom. The Kingdom also assured U.S. officials of its confidence in its military capabilities, following nearly a decade of training the Yemeni government army, according to two sources for the network.

The Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces began fighting the Houthis - who receive support and training from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard - more than a decade ago during the violent civil war in Yemen. A UN-brokered truce in 2022 led to a period of relatively low levels of hostilities between the two sides.

Saudi Arabia has been training the Yemeni army for nearly a decade, yet these forces have so far been unable to effectively repel the Houthis. Although Saudi strikes - supported by U.S. intelligence and precision targeting capabilities - have prevented the militia from tightening its grip on some areas it has seized, the progress made by that militia has not been fully halted. Sources reported that senior U.S. officials largely ignored the threat posed by the Houthis over the past decade, despite warnings from lower-level officials and regional parties to pay greater attention to this rebel group as its power grows.

The American military campaign against the Houthis last year revealed the limited firepower of the United States; months of bombing failed to effectively eliminate the group's foothold in Yemen, culminating in a sudden ceasefire between the United States and the Houthis. The American official stated that the United States "has established a ceasefire" with the Houthis during a meeting held in Oman over the weekend; a step that reflects the American administration's reluctance to engage in the conflict.

A senior Houthi official familiar with the matter told Afaq News on Thursday: "The Americans have sent a message that they do not want to join the Saudis or be a party to the conflict." The source added: "We received this message positively."

Some current and former American officials say there was a belief that the firepower possessed by Saudi Arabia, coupled with its investments in the Yemeni army, would provide a counterbalance to Houthi attacks; however, this expectation has not yet materialized on the ground. Others see that the successes achieved by the Houthis are not surprising, especially considering the cohesion of the militia and the support it receives from Iran.

In this regard, Liv - a former assistant to the Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs - stated: "The Houthis have a very deep and fruitful relationship with the (Islamic Revolutionary Guard); the Guard has trained them and made a significant qualitative leap, transforming them from primitive fighters hiding in caves - as they were 12 years ago - into a force capable of inflicting massive destruction." She continued: "The Houthis have spent a long time over the past months preparing their forces for such a step specifically.

They have breached the ranks of the forces allied with Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government - which was not surprising - as they simply penetrated them, causing those forces to disintegrate and collapse." With the increasing clarity that the Saudi-backed government will need more resources to confront the Houthis, the kingdom finds itself under immense pressure due to its handling of a wide range of challenges arising from the ongoing war, including the recent attack on the oil pipeline (East-West), working with the American military to ensure the movement of oil tankers through the strait, and maintaining an open land corridor for the transport of vital resources across the region.

In recent days, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has reduced its oil exports to Europe for September, raising concerns about the potential exacerbation of the global energy crisis. Any effective response from Saudi-backed forces in Yemen is likely to require sending more ground troops - either from the Kingdom or from other parties - and demonstrating a clear American commitment; however, neither of these seems likely.

Another regional source stated: "At the very least, the possibility of American intervention should remain as a deterrent; unnecessarily ruling out this option would undermine morale, especially among Yemenis on the ground." Gulf and American sources have also expressed doubts about the possibility of fully resolving the Houthi escalation through military means.