Israeli elections: Small parties control the keys of government

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Between Benjamin Netanyahu's ambition to remain in power and his opponents' efforts to remove him, there are small parties that may determine who will become the head of the Israeli government.

As the October 27 elections approach, the competition goes beyond the race to obtain the largest number of seats to the ability to gather partners who will give one of the two camps a majority that allows it to rule.

The first elections since the October 7, 2023 attack and the wars that followed it come amid division over the political leadership’s responsibility for security failures, disagreement over the recruitment of religiously ultra-Orthodox Jews, and the high cost of living.

But translating this division into a new government remains subject to complex coalition calculations, which may give a few seats a decisive role in determining the outcome.

Israelis vote for party lists, and the 120 Knesset seats are distributed according to the proportional representation system, to lists that exceed the threshold of 3.25 percent of the votes. Because no party has ever won a majority of parliamentary seats alone, the formation of governments is based on alliances.

Hence, the party may lead the results, but it is unable to secure the partners necessary to reach a majority of 61 seats.

To clarify the equation, a camp that wins 57 seats may depend on joining a party that has only four seats. Then, these few seats have great negotiating value, allowing their holders to demand ministerial portfolios or political and legislative obligations.

Netanyahu leads the Likud Party, and his camp relies on partners from the extreme right and religious parties, most notably the “Jewish Force” led by Itamar Ben Gvir, and the “Religious Zionism” led by Bezalel Smotrich, along with “Shas” and “United Torah Judaism.”

However, maintaining this camp requires reconciling different priorities. While the far-right allies are pushing towards expanding settlements and tightening security policies, the religious parties are putting the interests of their constituencies at the forefront of their demands, especially with regard to exempting religious institute students from military service.

As a result, the recruitment file becomes a test of Netanyahu's ability to satisfy his allies, at a time when demands are rising to distribute the burdens of service more equally.

On the other hand, former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar Party, is emerging as a main competitor to Netanyahu. Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid are also running in the elections on the “Together” list, while Avigdor Lieberman leads the “Israel Our Home” party, and Yair Golan heads the “Democrats” party.

These forces converge on the goal of changing the government, but they extend from the right to the center and the left, which makes their agreement to remove Netanyahu the beginning of other negotiations regarding the form of the coalition and its program.

Winning more seats than Netanyahu's camp alone does not guarantee the formation of a government unless his opponents are able to overcome their differences and agree on acceptable partners.

Here the importance of the Arab lists emerges, whose support may become necessary to tip the balance in favor of the opposition, whether through participation in the coalition or support for a minority government from outside it.

But this possibility collides with Eisenkot's refusal to ally with it, while Mansour Abbas, leader of the United Arab List "Ra'em", seeks to open the door to cooperation. As for the Joint List, it raises the possibility of influence by supporting a government from outside it. Thus, the opposition may find itself facing a difficult equation: it needs the seats of the Arab lists to gain power, while forces within it are reluctant to cooperate with it.

In addition to partnership negotiations, the threshold is particularly important. The failure of a small party to overcome it deprives it of representation, and may change the balance of seats between the camps.

Therefore, election night may reveal the name of the largest party, without deciding the identity of the prime minister. The decisive battle begins when each party tries to convert the results of the ballot boxes into a majority, and then the smaller party may become the one with the heaviest say.