Ofoq News poll: The majority of Rogers’ supporters vote for him out of opposition to his rival, Abdul Rahman Al-Sayyed

An opinion poll conducted by Ofoq News Network in the last days of the election campaigns for four major races for US Senate seats showed that the Democrats were ahead in the states of Michigan and Texas, while the competition was still intense in the states of Maine and Kansas, without a clear lead for any of the candidates. The poll results reflect the unexpected transformations witnessed in the electoral landscape ahead of the midterm elections, which strengthens Democrats' hopes of seizing control of the Senate after next Tuesday's elections.

Although this scenario seemed unlikely earlier in the year, the chances of achieving it have become greater, although they remain not guaranteed, in light of the decline in the popularity of President Donald Trump, even in the states where he achieved a comfortable victory during the 2024 elections, which made some traditional Republican strongholds open competitive arenas. In Michigan, one of the most prominent swing states, Democratic candidate Abdul Rahman Al-Sayed leads by 49% over his Republican competitor, Mike Rogers, who received 42% of the support of voters likely to participate in the vote.

This progress comes amid indications of the Democratic base uniting behind Al-Sayyid, in contrast to the decline in the enthusiasm of some Republican voters to participate in the elections. Abdul Rahman Al-Sayed succeeded in widening the gap with his competitor, Mike Rogers, after the race between them was very close, according to previous polls conducted by Ofoq News coinciding with the Labor Day holiday in September.

This shift reflects the decline in positive perception of Rogers, in addition to Al-Sayed's success in rallying Democratic support and unifying their ranks following the controversial primary elections that the state witnessed in August. Al-Sayed currently enjoys the support of 95% of Democratic voters likely to participate in the elections, compared to 90% in the previous poll, which indicates increasing partisan convergence around his candidacy.

The results also show differences in voting motivations among supporters of the candidates; 75% of Al-Sayyid’s supporters say that they are voting in support of him, while 57% of Rogers’ supporters confirm that their primary motivation for voting is to oppose Al-Sayyid, in a marked shift from their positions during the previous stages of the election campaign. This coincides with a clear decline in Rogers’ image among voters. The percentage of those with a negative impression of the former congressman rose to 50%, compared to 42% in early September.

On the other hand, voters' opinions about Abdel Sayed are still almost evenly divided between positive and negative.