Putin Prepares to Escalate the War in Ukraine and Worrying Russian Moves Against NATO

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Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing to escalate his war in Ukraine and intensify hybrid attacks against Kyiv's allies in Europe, amid Western fears that Moscow may be preparing for a new military mobilization following the elections scheduled for the end of this week.

Western intelligence officials said that the Russian leadership is working to create the necessary administrative conditions for what they described as "covert mobilization," which could allow for the recruitment of thousands of new Russians into the armed forces.

An intelligence source told the Telegraph: "What we are seeing are administrative preparations to make that possible, if the decision is made."

At the same time, European leaders warned of the possibility of an escalation of what they described as the hybrid war being waged by the Kremlin against the West.

According to intelligence sources, Putin is in a more difficult position as Russian forces have suffered around 1.5 million casualties in Ukraine, including about 500,000 dead, at a time when the war has largely reached a state of military stalemate.

Estimates suggest that Putin is inclined to escalate rather than enter into serious peace negotiations mediated by U.S. President Donald Trump.

European security concerns increased on Friday after reports indicated that the United States is considering withdrawing large numbers of its troops stationed in Europe.

According to reports, the Pentagon is considering withdrawing between 25,000 and 40,000 soldiers, along with reducing the presence of American aircraft, ships, and weapons on the continent.

The United States denied these reports, but the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO later held talks on Friday with senior Pentagon officials regarding the status of U.S. forces in Europe, according to the alliance.

European defense and security officials, in private conversations, express fears that the Russian war in Ukraine may be a precursor to a broader campaign of hostile actions against NATO countries, especially after the Russian elections.

These officials believe that any new Russian mobilization may not necessarily focus on the Ukrainian front, but could allow Moscow to deploy additional forces at new bases along its western border with NATO countries.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron ordered officials on Friday to prepare a plan to protect critical infrastructure and defense industries from potential sabotage.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that Russia is planning to carry out missile strikes against countries supporting Ukraine, noting that Moscow may describe those attacks as "accidental incidents" to test NATO's cohesion.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had previously stated that Ukrainian intelligence believes Moscow is planning to call up an additional 300,000 soldiers.

However, Western intelligence officials have questioned Russia's ability to equip 300,000 new recruits and send them to the battlefield, considering that "a large-scale mass mobilization seems unlikely."

One intelligence source stated that the West is monitoring what it calls "covert mobilization," alongside additional efforts to increase recruitment under military contracts, including pressuring individuals awaiting trial, those behind on debt payments, or struggling in their university studies to join the army.

Bloomberg reported on Friday that there are concerns within the Kremlin itself about the possibility of resorting to large-scale mobilization, based on Russian documents showing increased activity at recruitment centers, as well as indications that some Russians are attempting to transfer their money and assets abroad to avoid military conscription.

Macron, while discussing the rising Russian threat to Europe, stated: "In recent weeks, the hybrid Russian threat against Europeans and against France has escalated."

He added that the goal is to "intimidate us and undermine our efforts to support Ukraine," emphasizing that the result will be the opposite, and that France "will not be afraid" because its current and future security is linked to what is happening in Ukraine.

In another development, Moscow warned that British facilities in Ukraine would be considered "legitimate targets" if used to support long-range strikes against Russia.

The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the Deputy Head of the British diplomatic mission in Moscow, Danai Dolakia, to protest British support for Ukraine in the war that began with Putin's comprehensive invasion four years ago. Moscow warned the British diplomat of the possibility of taking "retaliatory measures," in the latest Russian threat to Britain.

A spokesperson for the British Foreign Office stated that the summons represents "another attempt to divert attention from Russia's brutal large-scale invasion of Ukraine and to tarnish the UK's image on the international stage."

This month, Britain announced the allocation of £100 million to enhance Ukraine's air defense capabilities during the winter, including "Patriot" missiles.

In the United States, Trump signed on Friday the "Lindsey Graham Act to Sanction Russia and Iran for 2026," which authorizes sanctions and tariffs against Moscow and extends existing sanctions on Iran.