Reuters: Iran Prepares for Escalation if Subjected to New American Attacks

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Reuters reported, citing its sources, that Iran is preparing for a broader and more powerful response if the United States resumes large-scale military attacks against it, while simultaneously continuing its diplomatic efforts, which Iranian officials secretly believe are unlikely to succeed.

This planning reflects a conviction among Iranian leadership that any new American campaign must be met with a stronger response than before, even as Tehran seeks to avoid escalation through talks.

Three senior Iranian officials and a source familiar with the discussions said that senior leaders are reviewing plans to expand the range of potential targets to include sites outside the Middle East.

Since Iranian President Masoud Bezhakian returned from New York last week, leaders and senior officials have focused on the scope and timing of any response in the event of another U.S. attack.

A final decision has not been made, but planning operations have intensified at a time when neither side shows signs of being willing to make any concessions.

These discussions come after seven months since the conflict began with American and Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28. A ceasefire agreement halted major military operations on April 8, ending a 40-day phase of the war, but combat and military operations have renewed intermittently since then.

Hamid Reza Azizi, a senior analyst on Iranian affairs at the International Crisis Group, stated that Tehran is still uncertain whether U.S. President Donald Trump will launch another major military campaign or opt for more limited strikes, such as attacks on nuclear facilities. He added, "But it seems they are determined not to respond symbolically to a symbolic move, but rather to escalate the situation in hopes of re-establishing deterrence."

Tehran is also considering the political risks that Trump may face due to the prolonged conflict. Polls indicate that the war is unpopular among Americans, and rising fuel prices remain a concern ahead of the upcoming midterm elections for Congress.

Two officials stated that Tehran has instructed its allied groups in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq to prepare to support Iran in the event of a renewed large-scale American attack. They added that the directives involve preparing for a coordinated response extending "from the Strait of Hormuz to American interests in the region and beyond the Middle East," as they put it.

Despite all this, Tehran still keeps a channel open for negotiations even as it prepares for a wider war.

Behind Iran's calculations lies a second concern: the extent to which its economy can withstand a prolonged confrontation under the U.S. blockade that has cut oil exports, a vital source of income. Long-standing sanctions and worsening economic difficulties have increased pressure on ordinary Iranians.

At the United Nations General Assembly meeting held last week in New York, Tehran presented a proposal to Washington through Qatari mediators, the acceptance of which would open the Strait of Hormuz and halt hostilities across the region within seven days.

Iranian authorities say the proposal calls for ending the fighting, lifting the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, releasing at least $12 billion of frozen Iranian funds, and issuing exemptions from sanctions imposed on the oil sector.

Trump announced on Saturday his rejection of the proposal. However, Iranian state media reported that an American response reached Tehran via Qatar on Tuesday, which is currently under review.

Iranian sources reported that Washington wants to include the controversial Iranian nuclear program in the negotiations, but Tehran insists that nuclear talks can only begin after meeting its seven conditions and not before.

One official said: "Even if Iran does not categorically reject the U.S. response and indirect talks continue, it is highly unlikely that the two sides will reach an agreement."

Alex Vatanka, director of the "Iran Program" at the Middle East Institute in Washington, stated that the prospects for diplomacy remain limited.

He added: "Iran cannot afford the continuation of the U.S. blockade, which could represent a significant turning point and essentially deprive the regime of oxygen... escalation at this stage is likely."

The pace of the conflict has varied since the onset of hostilities, alternating between periods of calm and renewed attacks, resulting in the deaths of thousands of civilians, weakening Iranian military capabilities, and damaging an already fragile economy.

As for the United States, the war failed to achieve Trump's objectives and also depleted the U.S. Department of Defense (Pentagon) stockpiles of missiles.

Iran and its allies sought to raise the cost for Washington by expanding the scope of the conflict in the region, disrupting the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and increasing the risks threatening global energy markets.

A source familiar with the decision-making process said that the combination of military pressure and economic constraints has made it more difficult for the rulers of Tehran.

This tension also fuels concerns within the leadership about internal stability.

A former senior reformist Iranian official said that the leadership fears a repeat of the protests that erupted in January when dire economic conditions caused unrest across the country.

The official added: "Facing internal disturbances at a time when the regime is under American pressure and bombardment could pose a very serious challenge to the legitimacy of the ruling institution."

As the anniversary of the January disturbances approaches, the authorities have tightened security measures as they try to mobilize the masses and encourage supporters to return to nighttime gatherings.

Human rights groups have reported that the government has intensified its campaign against the opposition during the war.

Amnesty International stated in May that the authorities had arrested more than six thousand people since the onset of hostilities, while UN investigators noted in a report released in September that there were mass arrests, torture, and an increased use of the death penalty.