Russia Prepares for a Large Campaign to Drown Ukraine in Darkness and Cold

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Russia is preparing to launch a wide campaign against Ukraine's energy infrastructure during the winter, in an attempt to plunge Ukrainian cities into darkness and cold and disrupt water supplies, according to a Russian document that Kyiv claims to have obtained through intelligence interception, which the American newspaper "New York Times" has reviewed a copy of.

The document, dated August and written in Russian, reveals a plan to carry out systematic attacks using up to a thousand missiles, drones, and bombs, targeting electrical substations, thermal and hydroelectric power plants, and heating facilities.

According to the newspaper, Ukrainian Energy Minister Denis Shmyhal presented the document to European partners in Paris two weeks ago, presenting it as a Russian plan aimed at bringing down the Ukrainian energy system through a series of graduated strikes.

The plan includes targeting electricity distribution yards associated with the three operational Ukrainian nuclear power plants, with the aim of forcing them to cease operations. The distribution yards are located less than a mile from the reactors.

The document also indicates the targeting of the water system, including pumping stations and sewage treatment facilities, with dozens of ballistic missiles and glide bombs, in an escalation that would add a water crisis to the electricity and heating crisis.

The plan identifies Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa as key targets, aiming to reduce electricity supplies in these cities by up to 90%, and to similarly cut heating supplies, significantly disrupting sewage systems.

The New York Times reported that it could not independently verify the authenticity of the document, but Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly announced that Moscow is preparing a large-scale campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure during the winter, presenting it as a response to Ukrainian attacks targeting Russian oil refineries.

Ukraine has been preparing for winter for months, spending hundreds of millions of dollars to repair power plants and substations, as well as establishing smaller gas facilities that are harder to target, and enhancing the electricity grid's capacity to handle high demand and redistribute energy when transmission lines are damaged.

However, energy experts warn that these measures may mitigate the effects of the attacks without preventing them. Olena Pavlenko, head of the energy-focused research group DXI, stated that four winters of war have weakened the electricity grid to the extent that facing a new winter is akin to 'running a marathon with one lung.'

Last winter, residents of Kyiv suffered power outages that sometimes lasted more than 12 hours a day, while the loss of power led to the shutdown of water pumps and elevators in many residential buildings.

The Russian plan indicates that the attacks will be carried out in three phases: targeting the substations near the western border that receive electricity from Europe, then striking hydroelectric power stations, and finally targeting facilities associated with the three operational nuclear power plants.

According to the document, the ultimate goal is to destroy approximately 15 gigawatts of electricity production capacity, which is roughly equivalent to the capacity that Ukraine had at the end of summer.