The New World Order is More Aggressive and Extreme

Author: Dr. Ahmed Rafiq Awad

In my opinion, the emerging global system before our eyes will be more extreme, aggressive, and expansionist than the system we have known over the past decades. The collapse of international law and the weakening of international bodies and organizations will lead to a phase of chaos and turmoil, which may last longer or shorter, until matters stabilize and centers of power and influence are established, and new rules for relations between states and societies are redefined.

Moreover, the competition for dwindling resources, control over trade routes, and dominance over markets and sources of wealth will inevitably lead to more possibilities of clashes and conflicts. The world is not only heading towards a redistribution of power but also towards a redistribution of resources and interests, and this process does not seem to be calm or subject to stable rules so far.

Conversely, the economic or military weakness of some major powers will necessarily lead to the emergence of many practical alliances and fronts that will form to confront those powers or limit their influence. This may result in the emergence of multiple alliances among medium powers, not only for military or security reasons but also to preserve their sovereignty, interests, and ability to develop and survive.

Perhaps all of this will be accompanied by an economic system different from the one we know now, or it will necessarily be so, because the centrality of this economy will fundamentally change. When centers of power and influence change, trade routes, sources of financing, production chains, and market centers also change, and thus the economic rules that governed the world during the previous phase change.

The new global system will be multipolar, but at the same time, it will be more fragile. Therefore, feelings of extremism of all kinds will prevail as a means of protection and retreat in the face of a turbulent world where the rules do not seem clear. This may lead, among other things, to changes in borders, the disappearance of weak states, the emergence of new entities, as well as waves of migration and multiple humanitarian tragedies. Every historical phase has its victims, and as it has been said: if you are not sitting at the table, you will be on the menu.

I say all this with a lot of sorrow and pain, as I watch the wars in our region have become, to a large extent, Arab-Arab wars, or Arab-Persian, or Sunni-Shiite, or all of that combined, in complete absence of awareness of the major transformations happening around us. While we are preoccupied with our internal conflicts, the rules of the world around us are changing, and technology is advancing at a tremendous pace, a technology that can change the world, and may also destroy it.

The more dangerous thing is that the powerful from all sides are playing in our land and waters as if they are playing golf, while we are gradually turning into arenas of conflict and corridors for the interests of others. At a time when the world is being reshaped, our region seems incapable of producing its own rules, or even of protecting its interests in a world that recognizes only those who possess power and the ability to use it.

Therefore, the emerging global system will not be more merciful to the weak; on the contrary, it will not show them any mercy at all. Perhaps the real question we should ask ourselves is not: what will the new world look like? But rather: where will we be when this world settles, who will be able to sit at the table, and who will find themselves once again on the menu?