Who is behind the French protests?

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Since the outbreak of protests in France two weeks ago, an investigation has been underway into the identity of the most prominent supporters of the violent marches, but no clear results have been announced yet. This is mainly because the forces behind protests of this magnitude do not want to take responsibility for them at the present time, at least before their goals are achieved or widespread change occurs. This does not change whether the “organizers” are one party seeking to achieve the same results, or several parties, or even whether they are united among themselves.

However, it is clear that the movement enjoys significant support from hard-line circles within France, although this support is not necessarily popular, or reflected in a voting bloc within the National Assembly. But the presence of thousands of rioters and fighters in the streets, participating in violence in the French capital and major cities, from Lyon to Marseille, and preventing the police forces from controlling these areas, is a fact that no one can deny.

First, the number of participants amounts to tens of thousands, which leaves a significant impact on French politics that cannot be ignored. What happened is another phenomenon that is evident in slogans, banners, and methods of engagement with security units. One can clearly observe the presence of “cadres” leading movements, directing protests, selecting urban targets, and formulating messages disseminated on social media.

Supporters of the "movement" initially claimed that it was a social and educational protest aimed at improving the conditions of schools and education in France, but the behavior of the protesters was not compatible with usual school protests, as thousands of extremists stormed municipal buildings, burned churches, invaded public places, seized national symbols, and clashed with the police far from their schools. Paris and other cities witnessed systematic destruction of shops and small businesses.

For ordinary Frenchmen, this destruction was not educational reform, but rather organized riots seeking to destroy the French economy and strengthen the influence of extremists in France, ahead of the presidential elections scheduled for next year. As for experts in geopolitics and urban policy, what happened is nothing less than an “uprising” against the entire French state.

The first question remains: Who were the forces that were actually present on the ground during the violence in the cities?

By surveying the conditions of activists and participants in the field, it can be noted that there are two large blocs: the first is the French extreme left, which includes communist organizations, anarchists, and networks linked to the movements known as “Woke,” and it appears to be leading the movement. As for the second, it consists of Islamist forces, most of which are linked to the Muslim Brotherhood, and to a lesser extent groups supportive of Khomeiniism.

The first camp participated openly and actively, especially based on the statements of Mélenchon, Secretary-General of the Communist Party, as well as MP Raphael Arnault, head of the “Antifa France” movement. This axis also includes extensions related to the “Student Revolution” in May 1968.

After the end of the Cold War, left-wing forces continued to oppose successive French governments, including conservative, centrist, and social democratic governments. But with the collapse of the Soviet Union, international networks of communist parties and other radical left factions began searching for sponsors and sources of funding.

By the late 1990s, circles of the Western far left, including those in France, were drawn to the Islamic Republic of Iran as a force “fighting imperialism.” Since then, the relationship between the general movement of the French left and the Islamic Republic has witnessed a close rapprochement, which, according to specialists, included financial support.

In contrast, French leftists and Muslim Brotherhood networks established strong relationships and directed their activity against conservatives and what they saw as “Israeli influence.”

In short, a set of common interests led to coordinated campaigns between leftist and Islamist movements in France. Initially, the left, which was losing popularity with French voters, sought to expand its base by bringing the Wok movement and Islamists under one umbrella.

As described in the United States and the West, what is known as the “red-green axis” strategically replaced the old camp that was led by the socialists. The French Socialist Party, which previously enjoyed great influence, is no longer as strong as environmentalists and radical factions have gradually moved to this new axis, which brings together communists, supporters of the “WIC” movement, and Islamists, whether belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood or supporters of Khomeiniism.

The overarching goal of these forces, according to this analysis, is to eventually overthrow the regime, starting with weakening the republic to an extent that allows local revolutionary pockets to emerge in the capital and the provinces.

And the goal? Preparing to resist a possible victory by Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally party, in the upcoming presidential elections. This analysis believes that the red-green axis realizes that Le Pen does not face real competition to reach the presidency in the Elysee Palace.

Some analysts believe that the "French Uprising" aims to modify the political balance of power, in preparation for the arrival of the next "French nationalist" authority.

But other analyzes add a dimension that must be evaluated, and relate to external interests that seek to weaken France abroad through this “axis.”

Initially, allegations were made that Russia was operating its networks inside France to create chaos, with the aim of weakening President Emmanuel Macron's efforts to provide military support to Ukraine. This theory holds that Moscow has an interest in the collapse or paralysis of French institutions, which would lead to France being excluded from the European war efforts against Russia in Ukraine.

But Russia today does not have the same influence that the Soviet Union had within the left. Contemporary Russia is a nationalist state and not a Marxist-Leninist state. It has intelligence influence in France, but this does not necessarily mean that it has popular control there.

According to this analysis, the international relations of the French extreme left are not managed by the Kremlin, but by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

As for the “global Islamists” present in France, it is said that they are clearly linked to two strategic centers in the world: one within the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the other within the international Muslim Brotherhood network.

We should also take into account that some regional and international parties are looking to replace France in Africa. Therefore, spreading chaos within France may constitute an ideal strategy to pressure Paris and push it to withdraw from African countries.

Currently, leftists and WOC supporters are at the forefront of field movements in France, while Islamist forces are stationed in the background and take over leadership of attacks when operations in the streets become more complex, according to this proposal.

Another question remains: Why do the left and the supporters of the "WALK" movement allow the "Palestinian flag" to appear in various parts of this "intifada", sometimes even more prominently than the red communist flags?

The reason, according to this analysis, is that the left chose the Palestinian flag due to its international dimension, after it became, over the years, not only a symbol of the “national issue” that arose around Gaza and the West Bank, but it was also used to represent an international issue linked to the progressive movement.

However, developments in conflicts in the region have led to more issues being raised than ever before, including Yemen, Iraq, Hezbollah, and Syria, as well as the internal situation in Iran.

France is now vulnerable to the influence of all the above-mentioned actors, until its population demands that the state take decisive action, which may include the deployment of the French army.

The current French president is trying to avoid resorting to this option, while his government hopes to reach settlements through negotiations.

Quoted from Independent Arabia