The Americans and the repercussions of October 7th

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The three-year-long Israeli war on Gaza has brought about a profound transformation on multiple levels, all of which are linked to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The most prominent of these effects is the change in American public opinion. Although Americans' view of Israel has been declining for more than 15 years, the way Israel managed the war accelerated and deepened this trend, adding new dimensions to it. Three decades ago, opinion polls showed that Americans viewed Israel very positively, while their view of the Palestinians was less positive.

However, there was a majority that opposed the Israeli government's policies of violating Palestinian human rights and continuing to build settlements in the West Bank. This gap between sympathy for Israel and rejection of its policies deepened among “Democrats” during the Barack Obama administration, in response to Israel’s rejection of President Obama’s insistence on a settlement freeze. The partisan gap in American positions toward Israel widened during Donald Trump's first term, in response to the president's full adoption of the Israeli prime minister's position. But even then, Americans' positive evaluations of Israel remained higher than those of Palestinians. Following the shocking cross-border attack launched by Hamas on Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023, US President Joe Biden provided important advice to Israel. Emphasizing his understanding of the Israelis' pain and shock as a result of what they were exposed to, he warned them against repeating the mistake committed by the United States after the September 11 attacks.

In the wake of those terrorist attacks, the United States enjoyed support from much of the world, but the administration of George W. Bush ignored this support and instead invaded and occupied Afghanistan and Iraq, killing hundreds of thousands and losing support around the world. Benjamin Netanyahu ignored Biden's public appeal and launched a retaliatory attack against Gaza's residents and infrastructure. The excessive Israeli violence terrified a wide segment of Americans and caused a shift in their attitudes towards Israel, which had deeper repercussions. Americans no longer sympathize with Israel, but rather oppose its policies, with recent opinion polls showing that negative assessments of Israel outweigh positive ones. In fact, the positive evaluations of the Palestinians have become higher than those of the Israelis. This shift is most clearly evident among Democrats, as 80% of them hold a negative view of Israel. This transformation had a tangible political impact. In the early stages of the conflict, when the Biden administration refused to act to stop the Israeli war, a progressive coalition mobilized its supporters not only on campuses but also in more than 300 cities across the United States, demanding a ceasefire.

This coalition brought together young people, ethnic minorities, and progressives. Its influence was felt in the 2024 elections, as evidence indicates that the “democratic” campaign likely lost part of voter support due to its refusal to respond to the movement’s demands for justice. The influence of this coalition extended to the Congressional votes and the elections that took place this year. In the US Senate, 40 out of 47 Democratic members voted in favor of preventing the sending of some military supplies to Israel, and more than 40% of Democrats in the House of Representatives took the same position. In the intense internal elections to run for congressional seats, more than a dozen pro-Palestinian candidates won. Another area where Israel's practices have had a profound impact is on the American Jewish community. After it was believed that American Jews adopted the positions of the Israeli government without reservation, the community today has become deeply divided.

A Washington Post poll showed an equal division in the opinions of American Jews regarding the Israeli war on Gaza, while a poll conducted by the Jewish Voters Institute revealed that 50% of American Jews support stopping US aid to Israel, while only 40% want it to continue. All of this sparked a reaction from supporters of Israel, as they pumped hundreds of millions of dollars to unseat pro-Palestinian candidates. So far, their movements have not succeeded, although they have caused real suffering to some candidates and students, and sparked divisions within society itself, without being able to bring about any fundamental change.

President of the Arab American Institute